Central West NSW Drought Risk: A Property Buyer's Guide 2026

Introduction

The Central West region of New South Wales, encompassing vibrant centres like Orange, Bathurst, and Dubbo, is renowned for its agricultural productivity and rich heritage. However, prospective property buyers must be aware of the increasing climate risks, particularly drought, that threaten the region's long-term prosperity and property values. Understanding these risks is crucial for making informed investment decisions and ensuring the resilience of your property. This guide provides a comprehensive overview of drought risk in Central West NSW, equipping you with the knowledge to navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by a changing climate. From historical drought events to future climate projections, and practical steps for assessing property-level risk, this guide is your essential resource for buying property in Central West NSW.

Drought Risk Profile

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Drought is a recurring and significant climate hazard in Central West NSW. The region's climate is characterised by hot summers and mild winters, with rainfall varying considerably across the area. According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) data from the Orange monitoring station, rainfall patterns have become increasingly erratic in recent decades, with longer periods of below-average rainfall punctuated by intense rainfall events. This variability exacerbates drought risk, impacting agricultural yields, water security, and overall economic stability.

The CSIRO's climate projections indicate a trend towards hotter and drier conditions in the Central West region. This includes increased evaporation rates and reduced soil moisture, further intensifying drought conditions. The frequency and severity of droughts are expected to increase in the coming decades, posing significant challenges for the region's communities and industries. The LGAs of Orange City, Bathurst Regional, and Dubbo Regional are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on agriculture and water resources.

Check your property's drought risk to understand the specific challenges in your area.

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Highest-Risk Suburbs

Drought risk varies across the Central West region, with some suburbs being more vulnerable than others due to factors such as water availability, soil type, and agricultural activity. Here's a suburb-by-suburb breakdown:

Orange: As a major regional centre, Orange faces challenges related to water security and the impact of drought on its agricultural sector. The surrounding agricultural lands are highly susceptible to drought conditions, affecting local businesses and employment. Water restrictions are common during prolonged dry periods.
Bathurst: Located in the Macquarie River catchment, Bathurst is vulnerable to water shortages during drought. The agricultural areas surrounding Bathurst, including viticulture and livestock farming, are significantly impacted by reduced rainfall and increased evaporation.
Dubbo: Dubbo, situated on the Macquarie River, is a major agricultural hub and livestock centre. Drought conditions severely affect the region's agricultural output, leading to economic losses and impacting local communities. Water restrictions are frequently implemented to conserve water resources.
Cowra: Cowra's economy is heavily reliant on agriculture, including cropping and livestock farming. Droughts have a significant impact on crop yields and livestock productivity, leading to financial hardship for farmers and impacting the local economy. Water availability is a major concern during dry periods.
Parkes: Parkes, known for its agricultural activities and the Parkes Observatory, is susceptible to drought conditions. The surrounding agricultural lands are vulnerable to reduced rainfall, affecting crop production and livestock farming. Water conservation measures are essential to mitigate the impact of drought.
Forbes: Forbes, located on the Lachlan River, experiences significant drought impacts on its agricultural sector, particularly cropping and livestock. The community relies heavily on river water, making it vulnerable during prolonged dry spells. https://climatenest.org/suburbs/nsw/forbes-nsw
Mudgee: Mudgee, known for its vineyards and agricultural production, faces challenges related to water availability and soil moisture during droughts. The wine industry is particularly sensitive to water stress, impacting grape yields and wine quality. https://climatenest.org/suburbs/nsw/mudgee-nsw
Wellington: Wellington, situated at the junction of the Bell and Macquarie Rivers, is highly dependent on agriculture and livestock farming. Droughts significantly reduce agricultural productivity and strain water resources, affecting the local economy and community. https://climatenest.org/suburbs/nsw/wellington-nsw

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Historical Events

The Central West region has experienced several severe drought events in the past, each leaving a lasting impact on the environment, economy, and communities. Here are three notable examples:

The Federation Drought (1895-1902): This prolonged drought was one of the most severe in Australia's recorded history. It decimated agricultural production across the Central West, leading to widespread crop failures, livestock losses, and economic hardship. Many farmers were forced to abandon their properties, and rural communities suffered significant population declines. The drought highlighted the region's vulnerability to prolonged dry periods and the importance of water management strategies.
The Millennium Drought (1997-2009): This extended drought had a profound impact on the Murray-Darling Basin, including the Central West region. Water levels in rivers and dams plummeted, leading to severe water restrictions and impacting agricultural production. The drought also affected urban water supplies, and communities faced challenges in maintaining essential services. The Millennium Drought underscored the need for improved water efficiency and drought resilience measures.
The 2017-2019 Drought: This recent drought severely affected the Central West, with record low rainfall and high temperatures exacerbating conditions. Agricultural production was significantly reduced, and many farmers struggled to maintain their livelihoods. The drought also impacted water security, with some towns facing critical water shortages. The event highlighted the ongoing vulnerability of the region to drought and the importance of proactive drought preparedness strategies.

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Climate Projections 2030-2050

CSIRO regional climate projections for NSW indicate that the Central West region is likely to experience:

Increased temperatures: Average temperatures are projected to rise by 1.0 to 2.0°C by 2050, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves.
Decreased rainfall: Average rainfall is projected to decrease, particularly during the winter months, leading to longer and more severe droughts.
Increased evaporation: Higher temperatures will increase evaporation rates, further reducing soil moisture and water availability.
More extreme weather events: The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and dry spells, are expected to increase, posing significant challenges for the region's communities and industries.

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These projections suggest that drought risk will continue to be a major concern for property owners and investors in Central West NSW. It is essential to consider these long-term climate trends when making property decisions and to implement measures to enhance drought resilience.

Property Value Impacts

Drought risk can have significant impacts on property values in Central West NSW. These impacts can manifest in several ways:

Reduced agricultural productivity: Droughts can lead to crop failures and livestock losses, reducing the profitability of agricultural properties and impacting their market value.
Water restrictions: Water restrictions can affect the amenity and usability of properties, particularly those with gardens or swimming pools, potentially reducing their appeal to buyers.
Increased insurance costs: Insurers are increasingly factoring climate risk into their pricing models, and properties in drought-prone areas may face higher insurance premiums. The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) provides data on insurance costs and climate risk, which can be a valuable resource for property buyers.
Capital growth impacts: Properties in areas with high drought risk may experience slower capital growth compared to less vulnerable locations. Buyers may be hesitant to invest in areas with uncertain water security and potential for reduced agricultural productivity.

It is important to assess the potential financial impacts of drought risk when considering a property purchase in Central West NSW. Factors such as water access, soil type, and the property's reliance on agriculture should be carefully evaluated.

Buyer Checklist

Before purchasing property in Central West NSW, consider the following due diligence steps to assess and mitigate drought risk:

Review historical rainfall data: Obtain historical rainfall data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) for the specific location of the property to understand past drought patterns.
Assess water access and security: Investigate the property's access to water resources, including bore water, river water, and town water supply. Determine the reliability and sustainability of these sources during drought conditions.
Evaluate soil type and quality: Assess the soil type and quality of the property, as this can affect its ability to retain moisture and support vegetation during dry periods.
Check for water restrictions: Contact the local council to inquire about current and past water restrictions in the area.
Review drought management plans: Obtain and review the local council's drought management plan to understand the strategies in place to mitigate the impact of drought.
Assess insurance costs: Obtain insurance quotes for the property and compare premiums from different providers, considering the potential impact of drought risk on insurance costs.
Consider long-term climate projections: Review CSIRO climate projections for the region to understand the potential future impacts of climate change on drought risk.
Consult with local experts: Seek advice from local agricultural experts, water consultants, and property valuers to gain insights into the specific drought risks and opportunities in the area.
Check your property's drought risk using ClimateNest's risk assessment tools.
Investigate water storage options: Explore the feasibility of installing rainwater tanks or other water storage solutions to enhance water security.

FAQ Block

Q: What is the main climate risk facing Central West NSW?
A: The primary climate risk in Central West NSW is drought, which poses significant challenges for agriculture, water security, and the overall economy.

Q: How will climate change affect drought risk in the region?
A: Climate change is projected to increase temperatures and decrease rainfall in Central West NSW, leading to longer and more severe droughts.

Q: Which suburbs are most vulnerable to drought?
A: Suburbs with a high reliance on agriculture and limited water resources, such as Orange, Bathurst, and Dubbo, are particularly vulnerable to drought.

Q: How can I assess the drought risk of a specific property?
A: You can assess drought risk by reviewing historical rainfall data, evaluating water access and security, and consulting with local experts.

Q: Will drought affect my property insurance costs?
A: Yes, properties in drought-prone areas may face higher insurance premiums due to the increased risk of water damage and other drought-related impacts.

Q: What measures can I take to mitigate drought risk on my property?
A: Measures to mitigate drought risk include installing rainwater tanks, improving water efficiency, and implementing drought-resistant landscaping.

Q: Where can I find more information on climate projections for Central West NSW?
A: You can find climate projections for the region on the CSIRO website and through state government resources.

Q: How does drought impact property values in Central West NSW?
A: Drought can reduce agricultural productivity, increase water restrictions, and affect the amenity of properties, potentially impacting their market value.

Data Sources

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM): "Climate Data Online." 2024. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/
CSIRO: "Climate Change in Australia." 2020. https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS): "Regional Population Growth, Australia." 2023. https://www.abs.gov.au/
Insurance Council of Australia (ICA): "Understanding Insurance." 2024. https://www.insurancecouncil.com.au/
Climate Council: "Compounding Climate Risks." 2021. https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/
NSW Department of Planning and Environment: "Climate Change." 2024. https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/

Get your personalised Central West NSW climate risk report at ClimateNest