Climate Risk Assessment for Maryborough, QLD

Maryborough, Queensland
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Maryborough faces increasing risks from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal influences due to climate change. The town's location on the Mary River makes it particularly vulnerable to flooding, which is expected to worsen with increased rainfall intensity and sea level rise. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
7.5
Bushfire
3.2
Heat
6.8
Coastal
5.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Maryborough

increasing

Flood

75/100

Maryborough is located on the Mary River and has a history of flooding. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, leading to a higher risk of riverine and flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise affecting river flow
increasing

Bushfire

32/100

While not immediately surrounded by dense bushland, Maryborough has some exposure to bushfire risk, particularly in areas with vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures due to climate change can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

68/100

Maryborough experiences hot summers, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

55/100

Located inland, Maryborough's coastal risk is primarily related to the Mary River's connection to the coast. Sea level rise can exacerbate flooding during storm surges and high tides, impacting low-lying areas along the river.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge intensity
increasing

Wind

35/100

Notable wind risk — tropical cyclone wind fields

increasing

Storm

39/100

Notable storm risk — cyclones and thunderstorms

stable

Social

24/100

Moderate social stability — growth regions

increasing

Energy

42/100

Elevated energy costs — high cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Maryborough

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

68/100

Maryborough experiences hot summers, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.3

2050

7.8

Data source

flood Risk

75/100

Maryborough is located on the Mary River and has a history of flooding. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, leading to a higher risk of riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise affecting river flow
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.0

2050

8.5

Data source

coastal Risk

55/100

Located inland, Maryborough's coastal risk is primarily related to the Mary River's connection to the coast. Sea level rise can exacerbate flooding during storm surges and high tides, impacting low-lying areas along the river.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

32/100

While not immediately surrounded by dense bushland, Maryborough has some exposure to bushfire risk, particularly in areas with vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures due to climate change can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Changes in vegetation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.7

2050

4.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the increased risk of flooding and other extreme weather events.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's elevation and drainage.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider the property's vulnerability to heatwaves and bushfires.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Mary River
Elevation Range
5-20 meters
Flood Zone
Areas adjacent to the Mary River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood data indicates that significant portions of Maryborough have been inundated in past events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
5-10 km to significant bushland areas
Planning Overlay
Check the QFES website for current bushfire overlays.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Areas with dry grass and eucalyptus trees are more susceptible to bushfires.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase significantly.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
30 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas along the Mary River are susceptible to sea level rise impacts.
Erosion Risk
Minimal direct erosion risk, but riverbank erosion can be exacerbated by sea level rise.

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodMajor

The 2011 floods caused widespread inundation in Maryborough, affecting homes and businesses.

Source
2013
floodModerate

Another significant flood event impacted Maryborough, causing damage to infrastructure and properties.

Source
2019
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to flooding in Maryborough, disrupting transportation and affecting local businesses.

Source
2022
floodMajor

Severe flooding impacted Maryborough, causing significant damage and requiring evacuations.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood758.0(+0.5)8.3(+0.8)8.2(+0.7)8.7(+1.2)
bushfire323.4(+0.2)3.6(+0.4)3.5(+0.3)3.8(+0.6)
heat687.2(+0.4)7.5(+0.7)7.4(+0.6)7.8(+1.0)
coastal555.8(+0.3)6.0(+0.5)5.9(+0.4)6.3(+0.8)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Maryborough is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heat risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Immediate

Invest in flood levees, drainage improvements, and early warning systems to protect properties and infrastructure from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Establish cooling centers, promote heat-safe practices, and ensure access to healthcare for vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Strengthen Bushfire Resilience

Long-term

Implement vegetation management programs, improve building codes for fire resistance, and educate residents on bushfire safety.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Protect Riverbanks from Erosion

Long-term

Implement erosion control measures along the Mary River to protect against sea level rise and storm surge impacts.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Near-term

Educate the community about climate change risks and adaptation strategies through workshops, information sessions, and online resources.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Maryborough's Climate Risk Profile

Maryborough, Queensland, is situated on the Mary River and has a history of significant flood events. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these risks, with more intense rainfall and rising sea levels increasing the likelihood of both riverine and flash flooding. The local council and residents need to be proactive in implementing adaptation measures to mitigate these impacts.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, although not as immediate as flooding. Drier conditions and higher temperatures can increase the flammability of vegetation, posing a threat to properties on the outskirts of town. Vigilance and proper land management are crucial for minimizing this risk.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a significant health risk, especially to vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Ensuring access to cooling centers and promoting heat-safe practices are essential.

While Maryborough is not directly on the coast, its proximity to the Mary River means that sea level rise can impact the town through increased flooding during storm surges and high tides. Protecting riverbanks and implementing coastal management strategies are important for long-term resilience.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · QFES · Fraser Coast Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Maryborough?

Maryborough is primarily at risk from increased flooding due to heavier rainfall and sea level rise, as well as more frequent and intense heatwaves. Bushfire risk is also a concern.

How will climate change affect property values in Maryborough?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value, while insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the increased risk of extreme weather events.

What is the council doing to address climate change risks in Maryborough?

The Fraser Coast Regional Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies, including flood mitigation measures and community awareness programs.

How can I prepare my home for flooding in Maryborough?

You can raise your home's foundation, install flood barriers, improve drainage, and ensure you have adequate insurance coverage.

What should I do during a heatwave in Maryborough?

Stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, avoid strenuous activities, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about bushfire risks in Maryborough?

You can find information about bushfire risks and preparedness on the Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) website.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections