Climate Risk Profile: Maryborough, QLD

Maryborough, Queensland· UNKNOWN
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Maryborough faces increasing climate risks, particularly from flooding and heatwaves. The town's location on the Mary River makes it vulnerable to riverine flooding, which is expected to worsen with climate change. Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves also pose a significant threat to public health.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
7.5
Bushfire
3.2
Heat
6.7
Coastal
5.8

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

6.7/100

Maryborough experiences hot summers, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwave events
  • ·Increased humidity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.2

2050

7.7

Data source

flood Risk

7.5/100

Maryborough is located on the Mary River and has a history of flooding. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, leading to a higher risk of riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise affecting river flow
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.0

2050

8.5

Data source

coastal Risk

5.8/100

Maryborough is located inland, but the Mary River connects it to the coast. Sea level rise and storm surges can exacerbate flooding in low-lying areas along the river.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge intensity
  • ·Changes in river flow patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.3

2050

6.8

Data source

bushfire Risk

3.2/100

The risk of bushfire in Maryborough is moderate. While not immediately surrounded by dense bushland, increased temperatures and drier conditions due to climate change can elevate the risk, particularly in areas with vegetation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Prolonged drought periods

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.7

2050

4.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to flood and heatwave risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider the long-term climate risks in the area.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Mary River
Elevation Range
5-20 meters
Flood Zone
Areas along the Mary River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood data indicates that the CBD and low-lying residential areas are most vulnerable.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
5-10 km to significant bushland areas
Planning Overlay
Available from QFES website
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Areas with dry grass and vegetation are at higher risk during the dry season.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
25 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Indirectly exposed through the Mary River.
Erosion Risk
Low erosion risk in the immediate Maryborough area.

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodMajor

The Mary River experienced a major flood event, inundating large parts of Maryborough.

Source
2013
floodModerate

Another significant flood event impacted Maryborough, causing damage to homes and businesses.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the surrounding region caused smoky conditions and increased fire risk in Maryborough.

Source
2023
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused the Mary River to flood, impacting low-lying areas of Maryborough.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood7.57.9(+0.4)8.2(+0.7)8.1(+0.6)8.6(+1.1)
bushfire3.23.4(+0.2)3.6(+0.4)3.5(+0.3)3.8(+0.6)
heat6.77.2(+0.5)7.5(+0.8)7.4(+0.7)7.9(+1.2)
coastal5.86.1(+0.3)6.3(+0.5)6.2(+0.4)6.6(+0.8)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Maryborough is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heatwave risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Immediate

Invest in flood levees and drainage systems to protect properties from riverine flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation strategies, including vegetation management and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plans

Immediate

Create heat action plans to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Upgrade Infrastructure

Long-term

Upgrade critical infrastructure to withstand the impacts of climate change, including roads, bridges, and water supply systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Near-term

Implement community awareness programs to educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Maryborough's Climate Risk Profile

Maryborough, Queensland, is situated on the Mary River and has a history of significant flood events. Climate change is projected to increase the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall, leading to a higher risk of both riverine and flash flooding. The rising sea levels can also affect the river's flow, exacerbating flood risks in low-lying areas.

Bushfire risk in Maryborough is moderate but increasing. While the immediate surroundings are not heavily forested, hotter and drier conditions can increase the flammability of vegetation, especially during prolonged drought periods. Residents should stay informed about bushfire risks and maintain their properties accordingly.

Heatwaves are a growing concern for Maryborough. The town already experiences hot summers, and climate change is expected to make these conditions more extreme. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Public health initiatives and community awareness are crucial for mitigating the impacts of heatwaves.

Although Maryborough is not directly on the coast, its proximity to the Mary River means it is indirectly affected by coastal hazards. Sea level rise and storm surges can increase the risk of flooding along the river, particularly in areas close to the river mouth. Planning and infrastructure development should consider these coastal influences.

Addressing these climate risks requires a multi-faceted approach, including investments in flood mitigation infrastructure, bushfire prevention measures, and public health programs to protect against heatwaves. Community engagement and awareness are also essential for building resilience to climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · QFES · Fraser Coast Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Maryborough?

The main climate change risks in Maryborough are flooding from the Mary River, increasing heatwaves, and a moderate but growing risk of bushfires.

How is the Fraser Coast Regional Council addressing climate change?

The Fraser Coast Regional Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies, including flood mitigation measures and community awareness programs.

What can residents do to prepare for increased heatwaves?

Residents can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, and checking on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Maryborough?

Information about flood risks can be found on the Fraser Coast Regional Council website, including flood maps and historical flood data.

What is the long-term outlook for property values in Maryborough given climate change?

The long-term outlook for property values in Maryborough is uncertain, but properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation or decline. It's important to consider climate risks when buying or selling property.

Are there any government grants available for flood mitigation measures?

Government grants for flood mitigation measures may be available from time to time. Check the Queensland Government and Fraser Coast Regional Council websites for current opportunities.

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