Climate Risk in Somerset, Tasmania

Somerset, Tasmania

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Somerset, Tasmania, faces increasing climate risks, particularly from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events and consider adaptation measures to protect their properties and well-being. The area's risk profile is expected to worsen under future climate scenarios.

Overall Risk Score

58/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

4.2

Heat

6.8

Coastal

5.7

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Somerset

increasing

Flood

65/100

Somerset faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the coast and the presence of nearby waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

increasing

Bushfire

42/100

The risk of bushfires in Somerset is moderate. While not immediately surrounded by dense bushland, dry conditions and increasing temperatures can elevate the risk during the bushfire season.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

68/100

Somerset is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

increasing

Coastal

57/100

Somerset faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These hazards could impact infrastructure and property located near the coastline.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm surge

stable

Wind

39/100

Notable wind risk — westerly wind storms

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — occasional severe weather

stable

Social

14/100

Lower social stability — regional isolation

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — winter heating

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Somerset

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

68/100

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Urban heat island effect (minor)

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.3

2050

7.8

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

57/100

Somerset faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These hazards could impact infrastructure and property located near the coastline.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Increased storm surge
·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.2

2050

6.7

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

The risk of bushfires in Somerset is moderate. While not immediately surrounded by dense bushland, dry conditions and increasing temperatures can elevate the risk during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to sea level rise and coastal erosion.
3.Inquire about the property's insurance history and potential premium increases.
4.Consider the property's energy efficiency and potential for solar power.
5.Evaluate the property's ability to withstand extreme weather events.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Inglis River
Elevation Range: 0-20 meters
Flood Zone: Coastal and riverine floodplains

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Within 5km
Planning Overlay: Tasmanian Fire Service Bushfire Prone Areas Map
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 22.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 2 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low-lying coastal areas are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk: Moderate erosion risk along exposed sections of the coastline.

Historical Climate Events

2016

floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the region, impacting low-lying areas and causing property damage. Heavy rainfall led to the Inglis River overflowing its banks.

Source

2013

bushfireMinor

Bushfires in nearby areas caused smoke haze and elevated fire danger ratings in Somerset. No properties were directly impacted.

Source

2009

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Tasmania, with record-breaking temperatures recorded in many areas. This put stress on vulnerable populations.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	6.9(+0.4)	7.2(+0.7)
bushfire	42	4.4(+0.2)	4.7(+0.5)
heat	68	7.3(+0.5)	7.8(+1.0)
coastal	57	6.0(+0.3)	6.5(+0.8)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Somerset is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk by 2030. The most significant increases are expected in heatwave frequency and intensity, followed by flooding and coastal hazards.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen Coastal Defenses

Long-term

Invest in coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to reduce the impact of sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Promote Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Educate residents about bushfire risks and encourage them to prepare their properties and develop evacuation plans.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Somerset's Climate Risk Profile

Somerset is a suburb in Tasmania that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Rising sea levels and increased rainfall intensity are expected to exacerbate flooding risks, particularly in low-lying areas near the coast and waterways.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, as hotter and drier conditions can increase the likelihood of fires, especially during the summer months. While Somerset is not immediately surrounded by dense bushland, the potential for fire spread from nearby areas remains a threat.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a significant risk to public health, especially for vulnerable populations. The combination of high temperatures and humidity can lead to heat stress and other health problems.

Coastal hazards, such as sea level rise and coastal erosion, threaten infrastructure and property located near the coastline. These hazards can lead to property damage, displacement, and loss of recreational areas.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation measures. Mitigation efforts aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow the pace of climate change, while adaptation measures focus on reducing the vulnerability of communities and ecosystems to the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Tasmanian State Emergency Service · Tasmanian Fire Service

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Somerset?

The main climate change risks in Somerset include flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to rising temperatures, increased rainfall intensity, and sea level rise.

How will climate change affect property values in Somerset?

Properties in high-risk areas, such as those prone to flooding or coastal erosion, may experience a decrease in value. Insurance premiums may also increase due to increased climate risks.

What can I do to protect my property from flooding?

You can take several steps to protect your property from flooding, including elevating your home, installing flood barriers, and improving drainage around your property.

How can I prepare for a heatwave in Somerset?

To prepare for a heatwave, stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and seek out air-conditioned spaces. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Somerset?

You can find more information about climate change risks in Somerset from the Tasmanian State Emergency Service, the Bureau of Meteorology, and the CSIRO.