Climate Risk in Harvey, Western Australia

flood Risk

6.5/10

Harvey is located near the Harvey River and coastal areas, making it susceptible to flooding from heavy rainfall and storm surges. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

coastal Risk

4.3/10

Harvey is located near the coast and is exposed to the impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, threatening coastal infrastructure and ecosystems.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Coastal erosion
·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.8

2050

5.3

bushfire Risk

4.0/10

The outskirts of Harvey have some bushland, posing a moderate bushfire risk. Drier conditions and higher temperatures due to climate change are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Increased fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in areas at high risk of flooding or bushfire.

Price Impact

Properties in areas at high risk of climate-related hazards may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to climate-related hazards.
3.Consider the potential impact of climate change on insurance premiums and property values.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Harvey River
Elevation Range: 5-20 meters
Flood Zone: Areas near the Harvey River are prone to flooding.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Some residential areas border bushland.
Planning Overlay: https://www.dfes.wa.gov.au/
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 10 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low-lying coastal areas are vulnerable to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk: Some coastal areas are experiencing erosion.

Historical Climate Events

2017

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Harvey, inundating homes and businesses.

2016

bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Harvey threatened homes and required the evacuation of residents.

2019

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in the summer of 2019 caused heat stress and health problems for residents of Harvey.

2022

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to flooding in parts of Harvey, impacting local infrastructure.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	6.5	6.9(+0.4)	7.5(+1.0)
bushfire	4.0	4.2(+0.2)	4.7(+0.7)
heat	6.0	6.5(+0.5)	7.5(+1.5)
coastal	4.3	4.4(+0.1)	4.9(+0.6)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Harvey is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk by 2030, with the most significant increases in flood and heat risk.

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to reduce flood risk, such as levees, drainage improvements, and flood-proofing of buildings.

Est. cost: High

Strengthen Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as clearing vegetation around homes, creating firebreaks, and developing community evacuation plans.

Est. cost: Medium

Develop Heatwave Response Plan

Near-term

Create a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. This includes establishing cooling centers and providing information on how to stay safe during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Plan for Coastal Adaptation

Long-term

Develop strategies to adapt to sea level rise and coastal erosion, such as building seawalls, relocating infrastructure, and restoring coastal ecosystems.

Est. cost: Very High