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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Thornlie, Western Australia

Thornlie, Western Australia· UNKNOWN
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Thornlie faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also a consideration. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in relation to heat and rainfall intensity. Coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.5

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.0/10

Thornlie is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. The urban environment contributes to the urban heat island effect, increasing nighttime temperatures and overall heat stress.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Thornlie faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from local rainfall events and the potential for riverine flooding from the Canning River. Properties in low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development reducing natural drainage
  • ·Aging stormwater infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.5/10

Coastal risks are low in Thornlie due to its distance from the coast. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not direct threats to the suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.5

2050

1.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.2/10

Bushfire risk in Thornlie is moderate due to its proximity to bushland areas. While not directly adjacent to large forests, dry vegetation and strong winds can increase the risk during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Strong seasonal winds
  • ·Potential for ignition from human activity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

4.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and property maintenance requirements.
  • 3.Consider energy efficiency and cooling options for heatwaves.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Canning River
Elevation Range
10-30 meters
Flood Zone
Areas near the Canning River are prone to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted properties near the Canning River.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 1km of significant bushland areas.
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain firebreaks and be aware of fire danger ratings.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Urban heat island effect contributes to higher nighttime temperatures.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
15 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not directly exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
No significant erosion risk.

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Thornlie.

Source
2011
bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Thornlie threatened properties but was contained by fire services.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Record-breaking temperatures during a heatwave caused heat stress and health concerns.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Significant rainfall event led to flash flooding and road closures in Thornlie.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.56.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire4.24.3(+0.1)4.5(+0.3)
heat7.07.6(+0.6)8.5(+1.5)
coastal1.51.51.5

By 2030, Thornlie is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a moderate increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will see a slight increase. Coastal risks remain minimal.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Stormwater Infrastructure

Near-term

Invest in upgrading stormwater drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Urban Greening Initiatives

Near-term

Increase tree canopy cover and green spaces to mitigate the urban heat island effect and provide shade during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Create a comprehensive heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Educate residents on bushfire safety and preparedness, including property maintenance, evacuation plans, and fire danger ratings.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Install Rainwater Tanks

Long-term

Encourage residents to install rainwater tanks to reduce stormwater runoff and conserve water.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Thornlie's Climate Risk Profile

Thornlie, located in the southeastern suburbs of Perth, Western Australia, is subject to a range of climate-related risks that are expected to intensify with climate change. The primary concerns for Thornlie are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfire risk. While coastal inundation is not a direct threat due to its inland location, the suburb must still prepare for the broader impacts of a changing climate.

Flooding is a significant concern for Thornlie, particularly due to increased rainfall intensity and potential riverine flooding from the Canning River. Properties in low-lying areas are especially vulnerable. The existing stormwater infrastructure may struggle to cope with more frequent and intense rainfall events, leading to localized flooding and property damage.

Heatwaves are another major risk for Thornlie. As average temperatures rise and heatwaves become more frequent and intense, the urban heat island effect will exacerbate the problem, leading to higher nighttime temperatures and increased heat stress for residents. This poses a particular threat to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Bushfire risk is moderate in Thornlie due to its proximity to bushland areas. While not directly adjacent to large forests, dry vegetation and strong winds can increase the risk during the bushfire season. It is crucial for residents to maintain their properties and be prepared for potential bushfire threats.

Addressing these climate risks requires a multi-faceted approach, including upgrading stormwater infrastructure, implementing urban greening initiatives to mitigate the urban heat island effect, and promoting community awareness and preparedness for extreme weather events. By taking proactive measures, Thornlie can enhance its resilience to the impacts of climate change and protect its residents and assets.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES

Local Government Resources

City of Canning

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Thornlie?

The main climate risks facing Thornlie are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfire risk. Coastal inundation is not a direct threat due to its inland location.

How is the City of Canning addressing climate change?

The City of Canning is implementing various strategies to address climate change, including upgrading stormwater infrastructure, promoting urban greening, and developing a heat action plan.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves?

Residents can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, and checking on vulnerable neighbors. It's also important to understand the signs of heatstroke and heat exhaustion.

How can I protect my property from bushfire risk?

To protect your property from bushfire risk, maintain firebreaks, clear vegetation around your home, and have a bushfire survival plan in place. Stay informed about fire danger ratings and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Thornlie?

Information about flood risks in Thornlie can be found on the City of Canning website, including flood maps and information about flood preparedness.

Are there any financial incentives for installing rainwater tanks?

Check with the City of Canning and the Western Australian government for any available financial incentives or rebates for installing rainwater tanks.

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