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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Avalon, NSW

Avalon, New South Wales· Northern Beaches· 2107
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Avalon, NSW, faces a medium overall climate risk. The suburb is particularly vulnerable to bushfires and flooding, with increasing risks projected due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.0
Coastal
5.5

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

4.0/10

Avalon experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Avalon faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

5.5/10

Avalon faces a moderate coastal risk due to sea level rise and potential for coastal erosion. This can impact coastal properties and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

7.0/10

Avalon has a high bushfire risk due to its location near extensive bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone land maps.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of climate change on insurance premiums.
  • 4.Inquire about council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Avalon Beach
Elevation Range
0-50m
Flood Zone
Areas near Avalon Beach and Bilgola Creek are prone to flooding.

Past flood events have impacted properties along Avalon Parade and near the beach. Council is undertaking studies to improve flood management.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Ku-ring-gai Chase National Park
Planning Overlay
NSW RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Many properties in Avalon back onto bushland, increasing their bushfire risk. Regular property maintenance and awareness of bushfire safety are crucial.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Elderly residents and those with chronic health conditions are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves. Cooling centers and community support programs are important.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas near Avalon Beach are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Coastal erosion is a concern along Avalon Beach.

Historical Climate Events

1994
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas near Avalon, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2007
stormModerate

Severe storms caused flooding and damage to coastal properties in Avalon.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to flash flooding in Avalon, impacting businesses and residences.

Source
2013
bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Avalon required RFS intervention to prevent property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire7.07.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
heat4.04.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
coastal5.56.0(+0.5)6.5(+1.0)

By 2030, Avalon is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with higher risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as improved drainage systems and flood barriers.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire management strategies, including hazard reduction burns and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Response Plan

Near-term

Create a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Implement Coastal Management Strategies

Long-term

Develop and implement strategies to manage coastal erosion and protect coastal properties and infrastructure.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Avalon's Climate Risk Profile

Avalon, located on the Northern Beaches of Sydney, is a suburb with a unique coastal environment and a strong sense of community. However, like many coastal areas, Avalon is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

The primary climate risks facing Avalon include flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. Increased rainfall intensity and sea level rise are contributing to a higher flood risk, while hotter, drier conditions are exacerbating the bushfire risk. Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves pose a threat to public health, particularly for vulnerable populations. Coastal erosion, driven by sea level rise and increased storm intensity, threatens coastal properties and infrastructure.

Addressing these climate risks requires a multi-faceted approach, including mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures to prepare for the impacts of climate change. Residents, businesses, and local government all have a role to play in building a more resilient community. This includes investing in flood mitigation infrastructure, implementing bushfire management strategies, promoting energy efficiency, and adapting to rising sea levels.

Understanding the specific climate risks facing Avalon and taking proactive steps to address them is essential for protecting the community and ensuring a sustainable future.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Northern Beaches Council

Local Government Resources

Northern Beaches Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Avalon?

Avalon faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion, all of which are projected to increase with climate change.

How is the Northern Beaches Council addressing climate change?

The council has a climate strategy that includes mitigation and adaptation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prepare for the impacts of climate change.

What can I do to prepare for bushfires in Avalon?

Clear vegetation around your property, have a bushfire survival plan, and stay informed about bushfire warnings.

How can I protect my property from flooding in Avalon?

Elevate your property, install flood barriers, and ensure your property is properly insured.

Where can I find information about emergency services in Avalon?

You can find information about emergency services on the NSW Emergency Services website.

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