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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Busselton, WA

Busselton, Western Australia· City of Busselton· 6280
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Busselton faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly through increased rainfall intensity, sea level rise, and hotter, drier conditions. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.5/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
5.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.0/10

Busselton is experiencing increasing heatwaves and higher average temperatures. Climate change is projected to further increase the frequency and intensity of heat events, impacting vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.0/10

Busselton faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from the Vasse River and coastal inundation. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity and sea levels, exacerbating flood risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

5.0/10

Busselton faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable to inundation and erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.0/10

Busselton has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in areas at high risk of flooding, bushfire, or coastal erosion.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area maps.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to coastal hazards.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of climate change on insurance premiums.
  • 4.Inquire about the property's history of flooding or bushfire damage.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Vasse River
Elevation Range
0-20 meters
Flood Zone
Areas near the Vasse River and Geographe Bay

The City of Busselton has undertaken flood studies to identify areas at risk of flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to state forests and reserves
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Areas Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should consult the DFES website for information on bushfire preparedness.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Busselton.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying coastal areas are vulnerable to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Moderate erosion risk along Geographe Bay

Historical Climate Events

2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Busselton.

Source
2021
bushfireMinor

A bushfire occurred near Busselton, but was quickly contained.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Busselton experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius.

Source
2015
stormModerate

A severe storm caused damage to property and infrastructure in Busselton.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.06.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire4.04.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
heat7.07.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
coastal5.05.5(+0.5)6.0(+1.0)

By 2030, Busselton is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with increases in flood, bushfire, heatwave, and coastal hazards.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve flood defenses

Near-term

Invest in flood defenses, such as levees and drainage systems, to protect low-lying areas from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement bushfire management strategies

Near-term

Implement bushfire management strategies, such as controlled burns and vegetation clearing, to reduce the risk of bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Immediate

Develop a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Implement coastal management strategies

Long-term

Implement coastal management strategies, such as beach nourishment and seawalls, to protect coastal areas from erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Busselton's Climate Risk Profile

Busselton, a coastal city in Western Australia, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The region faces a combination of risks, including flooding from the Vasse River and coastal inundation, bushfires due to surrounding bushland, heatwaves, and coastal erosion.

Flooding is a significant concern, with the potential for increased rainfall intensity and sea level rise to exacerbate existing risks. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable to inundation, and infrastructure may be at risk.

Bushfire risk is also increasing, with hotter, drier conditions projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety measures and have evacuation plans in place.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. It is important to stay hydrated and seek shelter during heatwaves.

Coastal erosion is also a concern, with sea level rise threatening low-lying coastal areas. Coastal infrastructure and ecosystems may be at risk.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES

Local Government Resources

City of Busselton

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Busselton?

The main climate change risks in Busselton are flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion.

How is the City of Busselton addressing climate change?

The City of Busselton is developing and implementing climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

What can I do to prepare for climate change in Busselton?

You can prepare for climate change by taking steps to reduce your risk of flooding, bushfire, and heatwave, and by supporting efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Busselton?

You can find more information about climate change in Busselton on the City of Busselton website and the websites of relevant state government agencies.

Are insurance premiums likely to increase due to climate change?

Yes, insurance premiums may increase in areas at high risk of flooding, bushfire, or coastal erosion.

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