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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Carnarvon, Western Australia

Carnarvon, Western Australia· UNKNOWN
High Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Carnarvon faces significant climate risks, particularly from heatwaves and coastal hazards. The town's low-lying coastal location makes it vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

7.2/10
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.8
Bushfire
5.5
Heat
8.5
Coastal
8.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

8.5/10

Carnarvon experiences high temperatures, particularly during summer. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

9.0

2050

9.5

Data source

flood Risk

6.8/10

Carnarvon faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Gascoyne River and low-lying coastal areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.3

2050

7.8

Data source

coastal Risk

8.0/10

Carnarvon is highly vulnerable to coastal hazards due to its low-lying coastal location. Sea level rise and storm surges can lead to coastal erosion and inundation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.5

2050

9.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

5.5/10

Carnarvon has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can increase the likelihood and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price depreciation.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and coastal erosion risk assessments.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of heatwaves on property value.
  • 4.Review insurance coverage for climate-related events.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Gascoyne River
Elevation Range
0-10 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal and riverine floodplains

Historical flood events have impacted low-lying areas of Carnarvon, particularly near the Gascoyne River.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to town
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Areas Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area surrounding Carnarvon contains vegetation that can act as fuel for bushfires.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
34°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Carnarvon experiences several days above 40°C during summer.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Carnarvon, impacting homes and businesses.

Source
2015
heatwaveMajor

A prolonged heatwave resulted in record-breaking temperatures and increased demand for emergency services.

Source
2018
coastalMinor

Storm surge caused minor coastal erosion and inundation in Carnarvon.

Source
2021
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to flash flooding in parts of Carnarvon, disrupting traffic and causing property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.87.1(+0.3)7.6(+0.8)
bushfire5.55.7(+0.2)6.0(+0.5)
heat8.59.2(+0.7)9.7(+1.2)
coastal8.08.6(+0.6)9.0(+1.0)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Carnarvon is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk by 2030, with notable increases in heatwave intensity and coastal inundation.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Improve drainage systems to reduce the risk of flash flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement coastal protection measures

Long-term

Construct seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against sea level rise and storm surges.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave management plan

Immediate

Establish cooling centers and provide public education on heatwave safety to protect vulnerable populations.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen building codes

Near-term

Update building codes to ensure that new construction is resilient to climate change impacts, such as flooding and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire mitigation

Near-term

Undertake controlled burns and vegetation management to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Carnarvon's Climate Risk Profile

Carnarvon is located in a region that is highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate heatwaves, posing a significant risk to public health, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions.

The town's coastal location makes it particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges. Coastal erosion is already a concern, and these issues are projected to worsen in the coming decades, potentially impacting infrastructure and property values.

Changes in rainfall patterns may lead to more frequent and intense flooding events, particularly along the Gascoyne River. This could disrupt transportation, damage property, and pose risks to human safety.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, with hotter, drier conditions increasing the likelihood of fires in the surrounding areas. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety measures and have evacuation plans in place.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES

Local Government Resources

Shire of Carnarvon

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Carnarvon?

Carnarvon faces significant risks from heatwaves, coastal inundation, and flooding due to climate change.

How is the local council preparing for climate change?

The Shire of Carnarvon is developing strategies to address climate change impacts, including upgrading drainage infrastructure and implementing coastal protection measures.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves?

Residents can stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

What is the risk of coastal erosion in Carnarvon?

Carnarvon is at moderate risk of coastal erosion due to sea level rise and storm surges. The council is monitoring the situation and implementing protection measures.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Carnarvon?

You can find information about flood risks on the Shire of Carnarvon website and the Department of Fire and Emergency Services website.

Are there any bushfire risks in Carnarvon?

Yes, Carnarvon has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety measures and have evacuation plans in place.

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