Climate Risk in Ellenbrook, Western Australia

Ellenbrook, Western Australia· UNKNOWN
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Ellenbrook faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly heatwaves and flooding. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.2/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.5
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

5.5/10

Ellenbrook is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, leading to increased heat stress for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwave events

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

4.5/10

Ellenbrook faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from local rainfall events and potential overflow from nearby waterways.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Coastal risks are minimal in Ellenbrook due to its inland location.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

6.0/10

The area surrounding Ellenbrook has a high bushfire risk due to the presence of significant bushland. Hot, dry summers increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry summers
  • ·Accumulation of flammable vegetation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Review local council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Swan River
Elevation Range
20-40 meters
Flood Zone
Low to Moderate

Local drainage infrastructure may be insufficient to handle increased rainfall intensity.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to large bushland areas
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain firebreaks and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the region.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
25 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not directly exposed
Erosion Risk
Negligible

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in Ellenbrook, affecting some residential areas.

Source
2011
bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Ellenbrook caused smoke haze and required residents to be vigilant.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased demand for emergency services and put stress on vulnerable populations.

Source
2022
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred due to intense rainfall, impacting some roads and properties.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood4.54.8(+0.3)5.1(+0.6)
bushfire6.06.1(+0.1)6.2(+0.2)
heat5.56.1(+0.6)7.0(+1.5)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Ellenbrook is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by more frequent and intense heatwaves and increased flood risk due to heavier rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade local drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Bushfire Management Plan

Immediate

Create and implement a comprehensive bushfire management plan for the community, including vegetation management and evacuation procedures.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Establish Heatwave Early Warning System

Near-term

Implement a heatwave early warning system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on how to stay safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation practices to reduce water demand during periods of drought and heat.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Near-term

Run community education programs on climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Ellenbrook's Climate Risk Profile

Ellenbrook, located in Western Australia, is subject to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to increased rainfall intensity, bushfires due to dry summers and surrounding bushland, and heatwaves that are projected to become more frequent and intense.

Flooding can occur from heavy rainfall events, potentially overflowing local waterways. Bushfire risk is elevated due to the proximity of bushland areas, creating a significant threat during the hot, dry summer months. Heatwaves pose a risk to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Climate change projections indicate that these risks will likely increase in the coming decades. Rising temperatures will lead to more intense heatwaves, while changes in rainfall patterns may increase the frequency and severity of flooding events. The bushfire risk is expected to remain high, with potentially longer fire seasons.

Adapting to these changes will require a combination of individual and community-level actions. This includes measures to reduce flood risk, such as improved drainage and building design, as well as strategies to mitigate bushfire risk, such as vegetation management and community education. Preparing for heatwaves through early warning systems and cooling strategies is also essential.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Ellenbrook?

The main climate risks in Ellenbrook are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase due to climate change.

How can I prepare for a bushfire in Ellenbrook?

You can prepare for a bushfire by maintaining firebreaks around your property, having a bushfire survival plan, and staying informed about fire danger ratings.

What should I do during a heatwave in Ellenbrook?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Is my property at risk of flooding in Ellenbrook?

Check the local flood maps to determine if your property is in a flood-prone area. Consider implementing flood mitigation measures, such as improving drainage around your home.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Ellenbrook?

The City of Swan is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on the community. Check the council's website for more information.

Where can I find more information about climate change projections for Ellenbrook?

You can find more information about climate change projections from the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology websites.

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