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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Kelmscott, WA

Kelmscott, Western Australia· UNKNOWN
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Kelmscott faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in relation to bushfire and flood events.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

5.0/10

Kelmscott is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This will increase the risk of heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Kelmscott faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Canning River and other waterways. Increased rainfall intensity and altered river flows could exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·River flow changes

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Kelmscott is located inland and does not face a direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

7.0/10

The risk of bushfires in Kelmscott is high due to the presence of nearby bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate risks when making a purchase decision.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Canning River
Elevation Range
20-40 meters
Flood Zone
Areas near the Canning River are prone to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted properties near the river.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland areas.
Planning Overlay
Refer to DFES bushfire prone area map.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain firebreaks and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Elderly residents are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
30 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2017
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding along the Canning River, impacting some properties in Kelmscott.

Source
2011
bushfireModerate

A bushfire near Kelmscott threatened properties and required emergency response.

Source
2010
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased heat stress and health concerns in Kelmscott.

Source
2005
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred in low-lying areas of Kelmscott following heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire7.07.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
heat5.05.3(+0.3)5.5(+0.5)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Kelmscott is projected to experience a moderate increase in flood and bushfire risk due to climate change. Heatwave intensity and frequency are also expected to increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Management

Immediate

Implement bushfire management strategies, including fuel reduction and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Develop a heatwave response plan and provide support for vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Kelmscott's Climate Risk Profile

Kelmscott, a suburb in Western Australia, is exposed to several climate-related risks. The most significant threats come from flooding due to its proximity to the Canning River, and bushfires due to the surrounding bushland. Rising temperatures are also expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

The risk of flooding is driven by increased rainfall intensity and changes in river flows. Urban development can also exacerbate flooding by increasing runoff. Bushfire risk is driven by hotter, drier conditions and the accumulation of flammable vegetation.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. While Kelmscott is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader region may experience indirect impacts.

Addressing these risks requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation measures. Mitigation involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions to slow down climate change. Adaptation involves taking steps to protect communities from the impacts of climate change, such as building flood defenses and managing bushfire risk.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES

Local Government Resources

City of Armadale

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Kelmscott?

The main climate risks in Kelmscott are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Kelmscott?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions due to increased flood and bushfire risks. Insurance premiums may also increase.

What can I do to protect my property from flooding?

Consider installing flood barriers, improving drainage, and elevating vulnerable equipment. Check your insurance coverage for flood damage.

How can I prepare for a bushfire in Kelmscott?

Maintain firebreaks, clear flammable vegetation around your property, and develop a bushfire survival plan. Stay informed about fire danger ratings and warnings.

What support is available during a heatwave in Kelmscott?

The City of Armadale provides information and support during heatwaves. Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

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