Climate Risk in Leeming, Western Australia
Leeming faces moderate risks from bushfires, heatwaves and flooding. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly bushfire and heatwave events. Coastal risks remain low due to the suburb's inland location.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Leeming is experiencing increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.
Primary Drivers
- ·Global warming
- ·Urban heat island effect
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
5.5
2050
6.0
flood Risk
Leeming faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from nearby waterways. While not directly on a major river, localized flooding can occur.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development reducing permeable surfaces
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
5.0
2050
5.5
coastal Risk
Leeming is located a significant distance inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.
Primary Drivers
- ·Distance from the coast
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
0.5
2050
0.5
bushfire Risk
Leeming has a moderate to high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. The risk is exacerbated by dry summers and potential for strong winds.
Primary Drivers
- ·Drier summers
- ·Increased fuel load in surrounding bushland
- ·More frequent extreme weather events
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.5
2050
7.0
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurers are likely to increase premiums in areas with higher bushfire and flood risk.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value over time.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
- 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Canning River
- Elevation Range
- 20-40m
- Flood Zone
- Low-lying areas near creeks
Localized flooding can occur during periods of heavy rainfall, particularly in low-lying areas.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent to bushland reserves
- Planning Overlay
- DFES Bushfire Prone Area Map
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
Properties bordering bushland are at higher risk. Residents should maintain firebreaks and have a bushfire survival plan.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 31.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3 days
Elderly residents and those with pre-existing health conditions are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 15 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Not applicable
- Erosion Risk
- Not applicable
Historical Climate Events
Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in parts of Leeming, impacting some residential areas.
SourceA bushfire near Leeming threatened properties, but was quickly contained by fire services.
SourceLeeming experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several days.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 4.5 | 4.7(+0.2) | 4.9(+0.4) |
| bushfire | 6.0 | 6.3(+0.3) | 6.6(+0.6) |
| heat | 5.0 | 5.5(+0.5) | 6.0(+1.0) |
| coastal | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
By 2030, Leeming is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by more frequent and intense heatwaves and a higher bushfire risk. Rainfall patterns may also become more erratic, increasing the potential for flash flooding.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Develop a community bushfire preparedness plan
ImmediateEngage residents in developing a comprehensive bushfire preparedness plan, including evacuation routes, firebreaks, and emergency communication protocols.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreImplement urban greening initiatives
Near-termIncrease tree canopy cover and green spaces to mitigate the urban heat island effect and provide shade during heatwaves.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreUpgrade stormwater drainage infrastructure
Near-termImprove stormwater drainage systems to reduce the risk of localized flooding during heavy rainfall events.
Est. cost: High
Learn morePromote water-sensitive urban design
Long-termEncourage the use of permeable pavements and other water-sensitive design features to reduce stormwater runoff and improve water infiltration.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreEstablish a community heatwave response plan
ImmediateCreate a plan to support vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and outreach programs.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Leeming's Climate Risk Profile
Leeming, a suburb of Perth, Western Australia, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary concerns are rising temperatures, increased frequency and intensity of bushfires, and potential for flooding due to more intense rainfall events.
The suburb's proximity to bushland makes it susceptible to bushfire threats, especially during the dry summer months. Climate change models predict longer and more intense fire seasons, increasing the risk to properties and residents.
Rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves pose a significant health risk, particularly for elderly and vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can further amplify these impacts.
While Leeming is not directly on the coast, increased rainfall intensity can lead to localized flooding, impacting infrastructure and homes. It is important to note that the suburb is not immune to the effects of climate change, and proactive adaptation measures are necessary to mitigate potential risks.
Addressing these challenges requires a multi-faceted approach, including community awareness, improved building standards, and sustainable urban planning. By taking action now, Leeming can enhance its resilience and protect its residents from the adverse effects of a changing climate.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES
Local Government Resources
City of Melville
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Leeming?
The main climate change risks for Leeming are increased bushfire risk, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and potential for localized flooding due to heavy rainfall.
How will climate change affect property values in Leeming?
Properties in areas with higher bushfire or flood risk may experience a decrease in value over time. It's important to consider these risks when buying or selling property.
What is the City of Melville doing to address climate change?
The City of Melville has a sustainability strategy that includes initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, promote energy efficiency, and adapt to the impacts of climate change.
How can I prepare my home for a bushfire?
You can prepare your home for a bushfire by clearing vegetation around your property, maintaining firebreaks, and having a bushfire survival plan.
What should I do during a heatwave?
During a heatwave, it's important to stay hydrated, stay cool, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on elderly neighbors and other vulnerable people.
Where can I find information about flood risks in Leeming?
You can find information about flood risks in Leeming on the City of Melville website and the Department of Fire and Emergency Services website.
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