Scarborough, WA: Climate Risk and Future Projections

Scarborough, Western Australia· City of Stirling· 6019
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Scarborough faces increasing risks from coastal hazards, heatwaves, and flooding due to climate change. The suburb's coastal location makes it particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
6.5

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.0/10

Scarborough is experiencing increasing heatwave intensity and frequency. Higher average temperatures and more extreme heat days pose risks to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Global warming
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Scarborough faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the coast and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

6.5/10

Coastal erosion and inundation are significant concerns for Scarborough due to sea level rise and storm surges. Infrastructure and properties along the coastline are at risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
  • ·Erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

8.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

3.0/10

Bushfire risk in Scarborough is relatively low due to its coastal location and urban development, but some areas near parks and reserves may be vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Windy conditions
  • ·Ignition sources

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase due to coastal and flood risks.

Price Impact

Properties closer to the coast may experience price fluctuations.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and coastal erosion risk assessments.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance coverage for climate-related risks.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate projections for the area.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Indian Ocean
Elevation Range
0-20m
Flood Zone
Coastal inundation zone

Low-lying areas near the coast are most susceptible to flooding during heavy rainfall and storm surges.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
0.5-2km
Planning Overlay
Some areas designated as bushfire prone
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Areas adjacent to Trigg Bushland Reserve and other green spaces require bushfire preparedness.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, particularly during the summer months.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
Moderate to High

Historical Climate Events

2010
stormModerate

A severe storm caused coastal erosion and damage to beachfront properties.

Source
2015
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source
2018
floodMinor

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Scarborough.

Source
2021
coastalModerate

Significant coastal erosion occurred after a series of strong storms.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.56.8(+0.3)7.3(+0.8)
bushfire3.03.1(+0.1)3.2(+0.2)
heat7.07.6(+0.6)8.2(+1.2)
coastal6.56.9(+0.4)7.5(+1.0)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Scarborough is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave intensity and coastal erosion.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Coastal Protection Measures

Near-term

Implement coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to reduce erosion and inundation risks.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Improved Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage infrastructure to manage increased stormwater runoff and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness Plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Mitigation

Long-term

Implement bushfire risk mitigation measures in areas adjacent to parks and reserves, such as vegetation management and fire breaks.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Near-term

Conduct community awareness programs to educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Scarborough's Climate Risk Profile

Scarborough, a coastal suburb in Western Australia, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Rising sea levels, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and increased rainfall intensity are all contributing to the suburb's overall risk profile.

The primary concern for Scarborough is coastal erosion and inundation. Sea level rise is expected to exacerbate these issues, threatening infrastructure, properties, and recreational areas along the coastline. Storm surges can also cause significant damage, particularly during periods of high tide.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Scarborough, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. The urban heat island effect can further amplify these risks, particularly in densely built-up areas.

While bushfire risk is relatively low compared to other parts of Western Australia, some areas of Scarborough near parks and reserves may be vulnerable. It is important for residents to maintain their properties and be aware of bushfire safety guidelines.

Addressing these climate risks will require a coordinated effort from local government, residents, and businesses. Adaptation measures, such as coastal protection works, improved drainage infrastructure, and heatwave preparedness plans, are essential to protect the community and ensure the long-term sustainability of Scarborough.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES · City of Stirling

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Scarborough?

Scarborough is primarily at risk from coastal erosion, sea level rise, heatwaves, and increased rainfall intensity leading to flooding.

How is the City of Stirling addressing climate change?

The City of Stirling has implemented various initiatives, including coastal protection measures, improved drainage infrastructure, and community awareness programs.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves?

Residents can stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, check on vulnerable neighbors, and follow advice from health authorities.

What is the long-term outlook for coastal erosion in Scarborough?

Coastal erosion is expected to worsen with sea level rise, potentially impacting properties and infrastructure along the coastline. Ongoing monitoring and adaptation measures are crucial.

Are there any bushfire risks in Scarborough?

While bushfire risk is relatively low, areas near parks and reserves may be vulnerable. Residents should maintain their properties and be aware of bushfire safety guidelines.

Where can I find more information about flood risks in Scarborough?

You can find flood maps and information on the City of Stirling website or contact the council directly.

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