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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk Assessment for Shelley, WA

Shelley, Western Australia· UNKNOWN
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Shelley faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change. While bushfire risk is relatively low, coastal impacts from sea level rise could affect the suburb.

Overall Risk Score

5.2/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
5.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

6.0/10

Shelley is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This will increase the risk of heat stress, especially for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Shelley is located near the Canning River and has a moderate risk of flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Riverine flooding and flash flooding are potential concerns.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

5.0/10

Shelley is located inland from the coast, but is still potentially vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges impacting the Canning River. Coastal erosion is not a direct threat.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.3

2050

5.6

Data source

bushfire Risk

3.0/10

Shelley has a relatively low bushfire risk due to its urban location and distance from large areas of dense bushland. However, parks and reserves nearby could pose a risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased flood and storm risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise on the Canning River.
  • 4.Review insurance options and premiums.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Canning River
Elevation Range
5-15 meters
Flood Zone
Areas adjacent to the Canning River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood events have occurred in Shelley, particularly in areas close to the river. The council maintains flood maps and provides information on flood preparedness.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 1km of some reserves and parks.
Planning Overlay
DFES Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

While Shelley is largely urbanized, some properties border bushland areas and are subject to bushfire regulations.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Perth experiences several heatwave events each summer, with temperatures exceeding 35°C. Shelley is subject to the same heatwave conditions as the broader Perth metropolitan area.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
10 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Indirect exposure through Canning River.
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas along the Canning River.

Source
2011
stormModerate

A severe storm caused damage to property and infrastructure in the Perth metropolitan area, including Shelley.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

Perth experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several days.

Source
2017
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred after a period of intense rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire3.03.1(+0.1)3.3(+0.3)
heat6.06.4(+0.4)6.9(+0.9)
coastal5.05.2(+0.2)5.5(+0.5)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Shelley is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with the most significant impacts from flooding and heatwaves.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave management plan

Immediate

Implement strategies to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, such as cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Strengthen coastal protection measures

Long-term

Implement measures to protect against sea level rise and storm surges, such as seawalls and beach nourishment.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Near-term

Encourage residents to conserve water to reduce the strain on water resources during periods of drought.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Shelley's Climate Risk Profile

Shelley, Western Australia, is projected to experience a range of climate change impacts over the coming decades. The most significant risks are associated with increased flooding due to more intense rainfall events and rising sea levels affecting the Canning River. Heatwaves are also expected to become more frequent and severe, posing a threat to public health, particularly for elderly and vulnerable residents.

Bushfire risk is currently moderate, but could increase slightly with drier conditions and higher temperatures. Coastal impacts, while not as direct as in coastal suburbs, could still affect Shelley through riverine flooding and storm surges.

The local council and state government are developing strategies to mitigate these risks, including improved drainage infrastructure, heatwave management plans, and coastal protection measures. However, individual residents and property owners also need to take steps to prepare for these changes.

Adapting to climate change in Shelley will require a combination of government action, community engagement, and individual responsibility. By working together, the community can build resilience and protect the suburb from the worst impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · DFES

Local Government Resources

City of Canning

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Shelley?

The main climate change risks for Shelley are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall and rising sea levels, as well as more frequent and severe heatwaves.

How will climate change affect property values in Shelley?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood risk. Insurance premiums may also increase.

What is the City of Canning doing to address climate change?

The City of Canning is developing strategies to mitigate climate change risks, including improved drainage infrastructure, heatwave management plans, and coastal protection measures.

How can I prepare my home for climate change impacts?

You can prepare your home by checking flood maps, assessing your property's vulnerability to heatwaves, and considering the potential impact of sea level rise. You should also review your insurance options.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Shelley?

You can find more information on the City of Canning website, the Department of Fire and Emergency Services website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

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