Climate Risk Profile: Crace, ACT
Crace faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events and take steps to mitigate their impact.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Crace experiences increasingly hot summers, with potential for heatwaves. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses, are particularly at risk. Urban heat island effect can amplify temperatures.
Primary Drivers
- ·Climate change
- ·Urban heat island effect
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
5.5
2050
6.0
flood Risk
Crace faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from nearby waterways. Development planning considers stormwater management, but localized flooding is still possible.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
- ·Climate change
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
4.5
2050
5.0
coastal Risk
Crace is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.
Projections (N/A)
2030
1.0
2050
1.0
bushfire Risk
Crace has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to grassland and bushland areas. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can exacerbate the risk. Residents should maintain firebreaks and be prepared for evacuation.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·High temperatures
- ·Strong winds
- ·Climate change
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.5
2050
7.0
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risks of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.
Price Impact
Properties in areas more exposed to bushfire or flood risk may experience slower price growth.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
- 4.Review the property's stormwater management system.
- 5.Develop a bushfire survival plan.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Ginninderra Creek
- Elevation Range
- 600-620m
- Flood Zone
- Low to Moderate
Stormwater infrastructure is designed to handle moderate rainfall events, but extreme events can overwhelm the system.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent
- Planning Overlay
- ACTMAPi Bushfire Prone Areas
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
The suburb's proximity to open grasslands and reserves increases the risk of ember attacks during bushfires.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 28.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3 days
The urban heat island effect can raise nighttime temperatures, reducing the opportunity for respite during heatwaves.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 150 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- N/A
- Erosion Risk
- N/A
Historical Climate Events
The 2003 Canberra bushfires caused widespread damage and loss of life in the region, highlighting the area's vulnerability to extreme fire events. Many suburbs were impacted, including areas near Crace.
SourceCanberra experienced a prolonged heatwave in January 2018, with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several consecutive days. This put strain on infrastructure and caused health concerns for vulnerable residents.
SourceA severe thunderstorm in January 2020 brought heavy rainfall and strong winds to Canberra, causing flash flooding and property damage in some areas.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 4.0 | 4.5(+0.5) | 5.0(+1.0) |
| bushfire | 6.0 | 6.5(+0.5) | 7.0(+1.0) |
| heat | 5.0 | 5.5(+0.5) | 6.0(+1.0) |
| coastal | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
By 2030, under a high emissions scenario, Crace is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased bushfire risk, and a higher likelihood of flash flooding due to more intense rainfall events.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Improve Stormwater Infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade stormwater drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flash flooding.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreBushfire Preparedness Programs
ImmediateImplement community education programs on bushfire preparedness, including evacuation planning and property maintenance.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreUrban Greening Initiatives
Long-termIncrease tree canopy cover and green spaces to reduce the urban heat island effect and provide shade during heatwaves.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreHeatwave Early Warning System
Near-termDevelop and implement a heatwave early warning system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on staying safe.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Crace's Climate Risk Profile
Crace, located in the northern suburbs of Canberra, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding from intense rainfall, bushfires due to surrounding grasslands and bushland, and heatwaves during the summer months.
Flooding risk is driven by increased rainfall intensity and potential overflow from nearby waterways. While urban planning incorporates stormwater management, localized flooding remains a concern. Bushfire risk is heightened by dry vegetation, high temperatures, and strong winds, particularly during the fire season. Residents are advised to maintain firebreaks and have evacuation plans in place.
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a significant threat to vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can further amplify temperatures in built-up areas. It is important to stay hydrated, seek cooler environments, and check on elderly or ill neighbors during heatwaves.
While Crace is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased migration, can indirectly affect the suburb. Residents should stay informed about climate projections and adaptation strategies to build resilience.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate
Local Government Resources
ACT Government
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Crace?
The main climate change risks in Crace are increased heatwaves, bushfire risk, and flash flooding due to more intense rainfall events.
How can I prepare my home for a bushfire in Crace?
You can prepare your home by maintaining firebreaks, clearing gutters of dry leaves, and having a bushfire survival plan in place.
What should I do during a heatwave in Crace?
During a heatwave, stay hydrated, seek cooler environments, and check on elderly or ill neighbors. Consider visiting air-conditioned public spaces.
Where can I find information about flood risks in Crace?
You can find information about flood risks on the ACT Government's Environment and Planning website, including flood maps and guidance on flood preparedness.
Is Crace considered a bushfire-prone area?
Yes, Crace is considered a bushfire-prone area due to its proximity to grasslands and bushland reserves. Residents should be aware of the risks and take appropriate precautions.
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