Climate Risk Profile: Crace, ACT

Crace, Australian Capital Territory· UNKNOWN· 2911
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Crace faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events and take steps to mitigate their impact.

Overall Risk Score

5.2/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

5.0/10

Crace experiences increasingly hot summers, with potential for heatwaves. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses, are particularly at risk. Urban heat island effect can amplify temperatures.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

4.0/10

Crace faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from nearby waterways. Development planning considers stormwater management, but localized flooding is still possible.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Crace is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (N/A)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

6.0/10

Crace has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to grassland and bushland areas. Hot, dry summers and strong winds can exacerbate the risk. Residents should maintain firebreaks and be prepared for evacuation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risks of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.

Price Impact

Properties in areas more exposed to bushfire or flood risk may experience slower price growth.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Review the property's stormwater management system.
  • 5.Develop a bushfire survival plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Ginninderra Creek
Elevation Range
600-620m
Flood Zone
Low to Moderate

Stormwater infrastructure is designed to handle moderate rainfall events, but extreme events can overwhelm the system.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
ACTMAPi Bushfire Prone Areas
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The suburb's proximity to open grasslands and reserves increases the risk of ember attacks during bushfires.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The urban heat island effect can raise nighttime temperatures, reducing the opportunity for respite during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
N/A
Erosion Risk
N/A

Historical Climate Events

2003
bushfireCatastrophic

The 2003 Canberra bushfires caused widespread damage and loss of life in the region, highlighting the area's vulnerability to extreme fire events. Many suburbs were impacted, including areas near Crace.

Source
2018
heatwaveModerate

Canberra experienced a prolonged heatwave in January 2018, with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several consecutive days. This put strain on infrastructure and caused health concerns for vulnerable residents.

Source
2020
stormModerate

A severe thunderstorm in January 2020 brought heavy rainfall and strong winds to Canberra, causing flash flooding and property damage in some areas.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood4.04.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
bushfire6.06.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
heat5.05.5(+0.5)6.0(+1.0)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, under a high emissions scenario, Crace is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased bushfire risk, and a higher likelihood of flash flooding due to more intense rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Stormwater Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flash flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness Programs

Immediate

Implement community education programs on bushfire preparedness, including evacuation planning and property maintenance.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Urban Greening Initiatives

Long-term

Increase tree canopy cover and green spaces to reduce the urban heat island effect and provide shade during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Early Warning System

Near-term

Develop and implement a heatwave early warning system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on staying safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Crace's Climate Risk Profile

Crace, located in the northern suburbs of Canberra, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding from intense rainfall, bushfires due to surrounding grasslands and bushland, and heatwaves during the summer months.

Flooding risk is driven by increased rainfall intensity and potential overflow from nearby waterways. While urban planning incorporates stormwater management, localized flooding remains a concern. Bushfire risk is heightened by dry vegetation, high temperatures, and strong winds, particularly during the fire season. Residents are advised to maintain firebreaks and have evacuation plans in place.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a significant threat to vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can further amplify temperatures in built-up areas. It is important to stay hydrated, seek cooler environments, and check on elderly or ill neighbors during heatwaves.

While Crace is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased migration, can indirectly affect the suburb. Residents should stay informed about climate projections and adaptation strategies to build resilience.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Crace?

The main climate change risks in Crace are increased heatwaves, bushfire risk, and flash flooding due to more intense rainfall events.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire in Crace?

You can prepare your home by maintaining firebreaks, clearing gutters of dry leaves, and having a bushfire survival plan in place.

What should I do during a heatwave in Crace?

During a heatwave, stay hydrated, seek cooler environments, and check on elderly or ill neighbors. Consider visiting air-conditioned public spaces.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Crace?

You can find information about flood risks on the ACT Government's Environment and Planning website, including flood maps and guidance on flood preparedness.

Is Crace considered a bushfire-prone area?

Yes, Crace is considered a bushfire-prone area due to its proximity to grasslands and bushland reserves. Residents should be aware of the risks and take appropriate precautions.

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