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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk Profile: Stromlo, ACT

Stromlo, Australian Capital Territory· UNKNOWN· 2611
Low Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Stromlo is a suburb in the Australian Capital Territory that faces moderate risks from bushfires and heatwaves. The risk of flooding is relatively low. Climate change is expected to increase the severity and frequency of these events in the future.

Overall Risk Score

3.5/10
Low

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
2.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
4.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

4.0/10

Stromlo is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.8

2050

5.5

Data source

flood Risk

2.0/10

Stromlo has a relatively low risk of flooding. While some areas may be susceptible to localised flooding during heavy rainfall events, the overall risk is considered minimal.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Local rainfall patterns
  • ·Topography
  • ·Drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

2.2

2050

2.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Stromlo is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (N/A)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.0/10

Stromlo faces a moderate risk of bushfires due to its proximity to bushland areas. The risk is elevated during dry periods and heatwaves.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Fuel load
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risk of bushfires and heatwaves.

Price Impact

Property values may be slightly affected by the increasing risk of bushfires and heatwaves.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check for bushfire protection measures.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance coverage for climate-related risks.
  • 4.Understand local flood risks and drainage systems.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Molonglo River
Elevation Range
600-700m
Flood Zone
Low risk

Localized flooding may occur during heavy rainfall events due to inadequate drainage in some areas.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Stromlo Forest Park
Planning Overlay
ACT Emergency Services Agency Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The suburb's proximity to Stromlo Forest Park increases the risk of bushfires, especially during dry periods.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the ACT, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
N/A
Erosion Risk
N/A

Historical Climate Events

2003
bushfireCatastrophic

The 2003 Canberra bushfires had a devastating impact on the region, including areas near Stromlo. The fires resulted in significant property damage and loss of life.

Source
2018
heatwaveModerate

Canberra experienced a prolonged heatwave in January 2018, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several consecutive days. This put a strain on infrastructure and public health services.

Source
2020
stormModerate

A severe thunderstorm hit Canberra in January 2020, causing flash flooding and property damage in some areas.

Source
2023
floodMinor

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in parts of Canberra, including some areas near Stromlo. Roads were closed and some properties were affected.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood2.02.2(+0.2)2.3(+0.3)
bushfire4.04.6(+0.6)5.2(+1.2)
heat4.04.7(+0.7)5.5(+1.5)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, under a moderate emissions scenario (RCP4.5), Stromlo is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increases in bushfire and heatwave risks. Flooding risk is expected to remain relatively stable.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire protection measures, such as clearing vegetation around properties and installing fire-resistant building materials.

Est. cost: Low to Medium

Learn more

Enhance Heatwave Resilience

Near-term

Install air conditioning or fans, improve insulation, and plant trees to provide shade. Ensure access to cooling centers during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Long-term

Invest in upgrading drainage infrastructure to reduce the risk of localized flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Near-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during droughts and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Stromlo's Climate Risk Profile

Stromlo, located in the ACT, is characterized by a generally low overall climate risk profile. The primary concerns for Stromlo are bushfire and heatwave risks, which are projected to increase with climate change.

The suburb's proximity to bushland elevates the bushfire risk, particularly during dry and windy conditions. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety measures and maintain their properties accordingly.

Heatwaves are also a growing concern, with projections indicating more frequent and intense heat events. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

While flooding is not a major concern, localized flooding can occur during periods of heavy rainfall. Maintaining drainage systems and avoiding construction in flood-prone areas can help mitigate this risk.

Coastal risks are not applicable to Stromlo due to its inland location. Residents should stay informed about climate change projections and take appropriate adaptation measures to protect themselves and their properties.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Government Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate

Local Government Resources

ACT Government

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Stromlo?

The main climate risks facing Stromlo are bushfires and heatwaves. The risk of flooding is relatively low, but localized flooding can occur during heavy rainfall events.

How is climate change expected to impact Stromlo in the future?

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires and heatwaves in Stromlo. This could lead to increased property damage, health risks, and strain on infrastructure.

What can I do to protect my property from bushfires?

You can protect your property from bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, installing fire-resistant building materials, and having a bushfire survival plan.

How can I prepare for heatwaves?

You can prepare for heatwaves by installing air conditioning or fans, improving insulation, and staying hydrated. It's also important to check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find more information about climate change in the ACT?

You can find more information about climate change in the ACT on the ACT Government's Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate website.

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