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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Belrose, New South Wales

Belrose, New South Wales· Northern Beaches· 2085
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Belrose is a suburb in the Northern Beaches region of Sydney, NSW. It faces moderate risks from flooding and bushfires, with increasing heat risk due to climate change. Coastal risks are low due to its inland location.

Overall Risk Score

5.5/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.0
Coastal
2.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

4.0/10

Belrose experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. Vulnerable populations are at higher risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.0/10

Belrose faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and local topography. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

2.0/10

Belrose has a low coastal risk due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not direct threats.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

2.0

2050

2.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

7.0/10

Belrose has a high bushfire risk due to its location adjacent to significant bushland areas. Dry conditions and strong winds exacerbate the risk during bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
  • 3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand policy coverage.
  • 4.Develop a bushfire survival plan.
  • 5.Consider energy efficiency and water conservation measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Narrabeen Creek
Elevation Range
80-120m
Flood Zone
Some areas within Belrose are identified as flood zones.

The Northern Beaches Council maintains flood maps and provides guidance on flood preparedness.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Ku-ring-gai Chase National Park
Planning Overlay
Belrose is within a designated bushfire prone area.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain their properties to reduce bushfire risk and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the Sydney region.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
7 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not directly exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
No significant erosion risk.

Historical Climate Events

1994
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted the Belrose area, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2007
stormModerate

Severe storms caused flash flooding and property damage in Belrose.

Source
2013
bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Belrose required firefighting efforts to prevent it from spreading to residential areas.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to localized flooding in low-lying areas of Belrose.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.06.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire7.07.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
heat4.04.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
coastal2.02.02.0

By 2030, Belrose is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with higher flood, bushfire, and heat risks. Coastal risks remain low.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Upgrade drainage infrastructure and implement flood control measures to reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement vegetation management programs, improve building codes, and raise community awareness to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plan

Near-term

Establish cooling centers, provide heatwave early warnings, and support vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Implement water restrictions, encourage rainwater harvesting, and promote water-efficient landscaping to conserve water resources.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Belrose's Climate Risk Profile

Belrose, located in the Northern Beaches region of Sydney, is characterized by its proximity to significant bushland and waterways, contributing to its natural beauty but also posing environmental challenges.

The suburb's primary climate-related risks stem from flooding and bushfires. Increased rainfall intensity and urban development contribute to the flood risk, while dry vegetation and strong winds exacerbate the bushfire risk. Climate change is projected to worsen these risks in the coming decades.

Heat risk is also a concern, with rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves expected. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions, are particularly at risk during heatwaves.

While coastal risks are low due to Belrose's inland location, the suburb is still indirectly affected by broader climate change impacts, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased demand for emergency services. Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving infrastructure resilience, and raising community awareness.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Northern Beaches Council

Local Government Resources

Northern Beaches Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Belrose?

The main climate change risks in Belrose are increased flooding, bushfire risk, and heatwaves.

How is the Northern Beaches Council addressing climate change?

The Northern Beaches Council has implemented various climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving infrastructure resilience, and raising community awareness.

What can residents do to prepare for bushfires in Belrose?

Residents can prepare for bushfires by maintaining their properties, developing a bushfire survival plan, and staying informed about bushfire risks.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Belrose?

Information about flood risks in Belrose can be found on the Northern Beaches Council website and through the NSW State Emergency Service.

How can I reduce my carbon footprint in Belrose?

You can reduce your carbon footprint by using public transport, conserving energy, reducing waste, and supporting sustainable businesses.

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