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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Casula, New South Wales

Casula, New South Wales· Liverpool· 2170
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Casula faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, potentially impacting property values and community well-being. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.5/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.0/10

Casula is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.0/10

Casula faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Georges River and other waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·River proximity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Casula is not directly exposed to coastal risks such as sea level rise and coastal erosion due to its inland location.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Inland location

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.0/10

Bushfire risk in Casula is relatively low compared to other areas in NSW, but still present due to nearby bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Proximity to bushland

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and heatwave risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about bushfire risk and mitigation measures.
  • 4.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Georges River
Elevation Range
10-30 meters
Flood Zone
Areas near the Georges River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood data indicates that parts of Casula have experienced flooding in the past.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 2km of bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
Some areas may be subject to bushfire overlays.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Check with the local council for specific bushfire-prone area designations.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The urban environment can exacerbate heat during heatwave events.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
30 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not directly exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
No significant erosion risk.

Historical Climate Events

1990
floodModerate

Significant flooding along the Georges River affected parts of Casula.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Casula.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions impacted vulnerable residents.

Source
2020
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred due to heavy rainfall events.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.06.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire4.04.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat7.07.7(+0.7)8.2(+1.2)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Casula is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flooding and more frequent heatwaves.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable residents during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Long-term

Implement bushfire mitigation strategies, including vegetation management and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Near-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce the strain on water resources during drier periods.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Casula's Climate Risk Profile

Casula, located in the Liverpool region of New South Wales, is susceptible to several climate-related risks. The suburb's proximity to the Georges River makes it vulnerable to flooding, which is projected to worsen with increased rainfall intensity due to climate change.

Heatwaves are another significant concern for Casula. Rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events could pose health risks, particularly for vulnerable populations. The urban environment may also contribute to the urban heat island effect, further amplifying these risks.

While bushfire risk is relatively lower compared to other areas, it remains a concern due to nearby bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Coastal risks are minimal due to Casula's inland location. However, the broader impacts of climate change, such as economic disruptions and supply chain issues, could still affect the suburb.

Addressing these climate risks requires proactive adaptation measures, including improved flood management, heatwave preparedness plans, and bushfire mitigation strategies. Community awareness and individual preparedness are also crucial for building resilience.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW State Emergency Service · Liverpool City Council

Local Government Resources

Liverpool City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Casula?

The main climate risks in Casula are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfire risk.

How will climate change affect property values in Casula?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation or decline. Increased heatwave risk may also affect property values.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Casula?

Liverpool City Council is implementing various strategies to address climate change, including flood mitigation measures and heatwave action plans.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Casula?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Casula?

You can find information about flood risks on the Liverpool City Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

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