Climate Risk in Coffs Harbour, New South Wales

Coffs Harbour, New South Wales· UNKNOWN
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Coffs Harbour faces a moderate overall climate risk, with heatwaves and flooding posing the most significant threats. Rising temperatures and sea levels are expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.1
Coastal
5.4

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.1/10

Coffs Harbour experiences a high risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Rising temperatures can pose a significant threat to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.6

2050

8.1

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Coffs Harbour faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its coastal location and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

5.4/10

Coffs Harbour faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable to inundation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.9

2050

6.4

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.2/10

Bushfire risk in Coffs Harbour is moderate, with areas of bushland surrounding residential zones. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can elevate the risk during bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in areas at high risk of flooding, bushfire, or coastal inundation.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to climate change impacts.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone land maps.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to sea level rise and coastal erosion.
  • 3.Inquire about the property's insurance history and potential premium increases.
  • 4.Consider the property's energy efficiency and potential for solar power.
  • 5.Evaluate the property's access to emergency services and evacuation routes.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Coffs Creek
Elevation Range
0-100m
Flood Zone
Areas near Coffs Creek and other waterways are prone to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted residential and commercial areas in Coffs Harbour.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
0-500m in some areas
Planning Overlay
Refer to NSW RFS bushfire prone land maps.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties adjacent to or near bushland are at higher risk of bushfire.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves can strain infrastructure and increase demand for energy.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying coastal areas are vulnerable to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Coastal erosion is a concern along some parts of the Coffs Harbour coastline.

Historical Climate Events

2009
floodModerate

Major flooding occurred in the Coffs Harbour region after heavy rainfall, causing significant damage to infrastructure and properties.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires threatened communities in the Coffs Harbour region, leading to evacuations and property damage.

Source
2017
stormModerate

Severe storms caused widespread damage in Coffs Harbour, including power outages and fallen trees.

Source
2019
droughtModerate

Prolonged drought conditions impacted water supplies and agricultural production in the Coffs Harbour region.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.56.7(+0.2)7.3(+0.8)
bushfire4.24.3(+0.1)4.7(+0.5)
heat7.17.5(+0.4)8.6(+1.5)
coastal5.45.6(+0.2)6.1(+0.7)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Coffs Harbour is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk by 2030, with heatwaves posing the greatest threat.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Improve drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Strengthen coastal defenses

Long-term

Implement measures to protect coastal areas from sea level rise and coastal erosion, such as seawalls and beach nourishment.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement heatwave early warning systems

Immediate

Develop and implement heatwave early warning systems to alert residents to impending heatwaves and provide guidance on how to stay safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote energy efficiency and renewable energy

Near-term

Encourage residents and businesses to adopt energy-efficient practices and invest in renewable energy sources to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire preparedness programs

Immediate

Support community-based bushfire preparedness programs to educate residents on how to protect their properties and families from bushfires.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Coffs Harbour's Climate Risk Profile

Coffs Harbour, located on the Mid North Coast of New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related hazards. The region's coastal location makes it vulnerable to sea level rise, coastal erosion, and storm surges. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding, particularly in low-lying areas.

Rising temperatures are increasing the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a significant threat to public health, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses. Bushfire risk is also a concern, with areas of bushland surrounding residential zones.

Climate change projections indicate that these risks will intensify in the coming decades. Sea levels are expected to continue rising, increasing the risk of coastal inundation. Rainfall patterns are likely to become more erratic, with longer periods of drought interspersed with more intense rainfall events. Temperatures are projected to continue rising, leading to more frequent and severe heatwaves.

Addressing these challenges will require a coordinated effort from all levels of government, as well as the community. Adaptation measures such as improving drainage infrastructure, strengthening coastal defenses, and implementing heatwave early warning systems will be crucial to protecting the region from the impacts of climate change. Mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are also essential to slowing the pace of climate change and reducing the severity of future impacts.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW Department of Planning and Environment

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Coffs Harbour?

Coffs Harbour faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards such as sea level rise and erosion. These risks are expected to increase with climate change.

How will sea level rise affect Coffs Harbour?

Sea level rise could inundate low-lying coastal areas, damage infrastructure, and increase the risk of coastal erosion. Properties near the coast are particularly vulnerable.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Coffs Harbour?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Consider installing air conditioning or visiting a cooling center.

How can I protect my property from bushfires in Coffs Harbour?

Clear vegetation around your home, maintain your gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan. Stay informed about bushfire alerts and warnings.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Coffs Harbour?

Coffs Harbour City Council provides information about flood risks and flood maps on its website. You can also contact the council directly for assistance.

Is Coffs Harbour doing anything to address climate change?

Yes, Coffs Harbour City Council has a climate strategy that outlines actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. The council is also working to improve energy efficiency and promote renewable energy.

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