Climate Risk in Dubbo, NSW

Dubbo, New South Wales· Dubbo Regional· 2830
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Dubbo faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the future.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.0/10

Dubbo experiences high temperatures during summer, leading to heatwave conditions and potential health impacts.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Dubbo faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location on the Macquarie River. Riverine flooding can occur after heavy rainfall events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Dubbo is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.2/10

Bushfire risk in Dubbo is moderate, with surrounding grasslands and bushland posing a threat during dry periods and high winds.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Wind

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

4.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and heatwave risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider bushfire risk mitigation measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Macquarie River
Elevation Range
250-300m
Flood Zone
Areas near the Macquarie River are designated flood zones.

The Dubbo Regional Council maintains flood maps and provides information on flood preparedness.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Surrounded by grasslands and scattered bushland.
Planning Overlay
NSW Rural Fire Service bushfire prone area map.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain their properties to reduce bushfire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
33°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Heatwaves are common in Dubbo during summer.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
370 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Major flooding along the Macquarie River affected Dubbo and surrounding areas.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions affected Dubbo, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several days.

Source
2016
floodMinor

Minor flooding along the Macquarie River caused some disruption in Dubbo.

Source
2019
droughtModerate

Prolonged drought conditions affected the Dubbo region, impacting agriculture and water resources.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire4.24.5(+0.3)4.7(+0.5)
heat7.07.7(+0.7)8.5(+1.5)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Dubbo is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and flooding events. Bushfire risk may also increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve flood defenses

Near-term

Invest in levees and other flood control measures to protect low-lying areas of Dubbo.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave management plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Reduce bushfire risk

Near-term

Implement measures to reduce bushfire risk, such as controlled burns and vegetation management.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade infrastructure

Long-term

Upgrade infrastructure to be more resilient to climate change impacts, such as extreme weather events.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Dubbo's Climate Risk Profile

Dubbo, located in the central west of New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The most significant of these is flooding, due to its proximity to the Macquarie River. Heavy rainfall events can cause the river to overflow, inundating low-lying areas of the town.

Heatwaves are also a major concern, with Dubbo experiencing high temperatures during the summer months. These heatwaves can put a strain on the local health system and can be particularly dangerous for vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Bushfire risk is also present, with surrounding grasslands and bushland posing a threat during dry periods and high winds. While not as frequent as floods or heatwaves, bushfires can have a devastating impact on the community.

Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the future, with more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased rainfall intensity, and longer bushfire seasons. It is important for residents and businesses to take steps to prepare for these risks and to adapt to the changing climate.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Dubbo Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Dubbo?

Dubbo faces risks from flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the future.

How is the Dubbo Regional Council addressing climate change?

The Dubbo Regional Council has a sustainability strategy that includes measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Dubbo?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

How can I protect my property from flooding in Dubbo?

Check flood maps to see if your property is in a flood-prone area, and take steps to protect your property, such as raising electrical outlets and storing valuables above flood level.

What should I do during a bushfire in Dubbo?

Follow the advice of emergency services, and evacuate if necessary. Have a bushfire survival plan in place.

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