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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Goulburn, NSW

Goulburn, New South Wales· UNKNOWN
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Goulburn faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in relation to heat and flooding. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.0/10

Goulburn is experiencing an increasing number of heatwave days, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. Average temperatures are projected to rise.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Reduced vegetation cover

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Goulburn faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Wollondilly River and other waterways. Historical flood events indicate potential for significant inundation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff
  • ·Climate change impacts on river flows

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Goulburn is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.2/10

The area surrounding Goulburn has a moderate bushfire risk, particularly in areas close to bushland. Grassfires are also a concern.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Hot and windy conditions
  • ·Potential ignition sources

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

4.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in areas identified as high-risk for flooding or bushfire.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone land maps.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to extreme heat.
  • 3.Inquire about past flood or fire events.
  • 4.Consider the cost of insurance.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Wollondilly River
Elevation Range
690m - 720m
Flood Zone
Areas along the Wollondilly River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood data indicates that parts of the CBD and low-lying residential areas are susceptible to inundation.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 1km of some residential areas
Planning Overlay
Refer to NSW RFS bushfire prone land maps.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The western and southern edges of Goulburn are most exposed to bushfire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves typically occur in January and February, with temperatures occasionally exceeding 40°C.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Significant flooding of the Wollondilly River caused damage to properties and infrastructure in Goulburn.

Source
2013
bushfireMinor

Bushfires near Goulburn caused road closures and posed a threat to rural properties.

Source
2017
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to flash flooding in parts of Goulburn, disrupting traffic and causing minor property damage.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions in Goulburn led to increased demand for electricity and placed strain on emergency services.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire4.24.5(+0.3)4.7(+0.5)
heat7.07.7(+0.7)8.5(+1.5)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Goulburn is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and flooding events. Bushfire risk is also expected to increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade flood defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to protect properties from flooding, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement a heatwave management plan

Immediate

Develop a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Improve bushfire preparedness

Near-term

Implement measures to reduce bushfire risk, such as hazard reduction burns and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water through education and incentives, to reduce the impact of droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Goulburn's Climate Risk Profile

Goulburn, located in the Southern Tablelands of New South Wales, is subject to a range of climate-related risks. The most significant of these is flooding, due to the town's proximity to the Wollondilly River and other waterways. Historical flood events have caused considerable damage, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating this risk.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, particularly in areas surrounding the town that are close to bushland. While not as immediate a threat as flooding, the potential for grassfires and bushfires to impact the community remains. Hot and dry conditions, coupled with strong winds, can create ideal conditions for fire spread.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Goulburn, posing a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Rising average temperatures and prolonged periods of extreme heat can lead to heat stress and other health problems.

While Goulburn is located inland and does not face direct coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased migration from coastal areas, could indirectly affect the town. Adaptation measures are needed to mitigate these risks and build resilience in the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Goulburn Mulwaree Council

Local Government Resources

Goulburn Mulwaree Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Goulburn?

Goulburn faces risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to be exacerbated by climate change.

How is the council preparing for climate change?

The Goulburn Mulwaree Council is developing and implementing strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change, including flood management and heatwave preparedness plans.

What can residents do to prepare for flooding?

Residents can prepare for flooding by checking flood maps, having an emergency plan, and ensuring their property is adequately insured.

How can I protect myself during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, it is important to stay hydrated, stay cool, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and friends.

Where can I find information about bushfire risk in Goulburn?

Information about bushfire risk in Goulburn can be found on the NSW Rural Fire Service website and through local council resources.

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