Climate Risk Profile: Granville, NSW

Granville, New South Wales· City of Parramatta· 2142
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Granville is a suburb in Western Sydney that faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change. While the bushfire risk is relatively low, it is expected to increase slightly. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
7.5
Bushfire
2.5
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

6.0/10

Granville is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

7.5/10

Granville faces a notable risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Parramatta River and other waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Proximity to waterways

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.0

2050

8.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Granville is not directly exposed to coastal risks such as sea level rise and coastal erosion due to its inland location.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

2.5/10

The bushfire risk in Granville is relatively low due to its urban environment and distance from large bushland areas. However, increased temperatures and drier conditions could slightly elevate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.0

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about council plans for climate adaptation.
  • 4.Consider the potential impact of climate change on insurance premiums.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Parramatta River
Elevation Range
10-20 meters
Flood Zone
Areas near the Parramatta River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood events have impacted Granville, particularly areas close to the river. The council has implemented some flood mitigation measures, but further action is needed to address the increasing risk.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
5-10 km to nearest significant bushland.
Planning Overlay
Some areas may have bushfire buffer zones.
Bushfire Prone Area
No

While not a high-risk area, residents should still be aware of bushfire safety during the fire season.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The urban heat island effect can make Granville significantly hotter than surrounding areas during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
25 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not directly exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
No significant erosion risk.

Historical Climate Events

1990
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the Parramatta River, impacting low-lying areas of Granville.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in parts of Granville, disrupting traffic and damaging property.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source
2020
stormMinor

A severe thunderstorm caused localized flooding and power outages in Granville.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood7.58.0(+0.5)8.5(+1.0)
bushfire2.52.7(+0.2)3.0(+0.5)
heat6.06.8(+0.8)7.5(+1.5)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Granville is projected to experience a noticeable increase in flood risk and heatwave intensity. Bushfire risk will also slightly increase. Coastal risks remain negligible.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure improvements to mitigate flood risk, such as levees, drainage upgrades, and flood-proofing of buildings.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Long-term

Promote bushfire awareness and preparedness among residents, including clearing vegetation around homes and developing evacuation plans.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Near-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce the strain on water resources during droughts and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Granville's Climate Risk Profile

Granville, located in the western suburbs of Sydney, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary concerns for this suburb are flooding and heatwaves, with a lesser but still present risk of bushfires.

Flooding is a significant threat due to Granville's proximity to the Parramatta River and other waterways. Climate change projections indicate an increase in rainfall intensity, which will likely lead to more frequent and severe flooding events. This poses a risk to homes, businesses, and infrastructure in the area.

Heatwaves are also a growing concern, with rising average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat events expected in the future. This can have serious health impacts, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and those with pre-existing health conditions. The urban environment of Granville can exacerbate the effects of heatwaves due to the urban heat island effect.

While the risk of bushfires is relatively low compared to other areas of New South Wales, it is still important to be aware of the potential for bushfires, especially during dry periods. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires in many parts of Australia, and Granville could be affected by smoke and air quality issues even if it is not directly threatened by fire.

Residents and businesses in Granville should take steps to prepare for the impacts of climate change, including developing emergency plans, investing in flood mitigation measures, and taking steps to stay cool during heatwaves. Local authorities also have a role to play in implementing climate adaptation strategies to protect the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · City of Parramatta Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Granville?

The main climate change risks for Granville are flooding, heatwaves, and a slight increase in bushfire risk.

How will climate change affect property values in Granville?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood risk. Rising insurance premiums may also affect property values.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Granville?

The City of Parramatta has a climate strategy that includes measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change, such as flood mitigation and heatwave preparedness.

How can I prepare my home for flooding in Granville?

You can prepare your home for flooding by raising electrical outlets, installing flood barriers, and developing an emergency plan.

What should I do during a heatwave in Granville?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Is Granville in a bushfire-prone area?

While not considered a high-risk area, Granville is located near bushland and residents should be aware of bushfire safety during the fire season.

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