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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk Profile: Hornsby, NSW

Hornsby, New South Wales· Hornsby· 2077
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Hornsby faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. Bushfire risk is also present. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.0/10

Hornsby is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, especially during summer.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Hornsby faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and overflowing creeks. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Coastal risk is low in Hornsby due to its inland location. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not direct threats to the suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.0/10

Bushfire risk in Hornsby is moderate due to the proximity of bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions during summer months increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Windy conditions

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency upgrades to reduce cooling costs.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Berowra Creek
Elevation Range
50-180 meters
Flood Zone
Areas along Berowra Creek and its tributaries are prone to flooding.

Hornsby Shire Council maintains flood maps and provides information on flood risks to residents.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Ku-ring-gai Chase National Park
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Check NSW Rural Fire Service website for current bushfire alerts and safety information.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
29°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Bureau of Meteorology data indicates an increasing trend in extreme heat days.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
25 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not directly exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
No significant erosion risk.

Historical Climate Events

1990
floodModerate

Major flooding along Berowra Creek affected low-lying areas in Hornsby.

Source
2002
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in Ku-ring-gai Chase National Park threatened properties in Hornsby.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions led to increased hospital admissions.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in parts of Hornsby, disrupting traffic and damaging property.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire4.04.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
heat7.07.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Hornsby is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased rainfall intensity leading to higher flood risk, and a slightly elevated bushfire risk. Coastal risks remain low.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Early Warning System

Immediate

Develop a system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on staying safe.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Mitigation

Near-term

Implement measures to reduce bushfire risk, such as vegetation management and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water to reduce strain on water resources during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Near-term

Educate the community about climate change risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Hornsby's Climate Risk Profile

Hornsby, located in the northern suburbs of Sydney, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding from heavy rainfall, heatwaves during the summer months, and bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland.

Flooding is a significant concern, with potential for increased rainfall intensity leading to more frequent and severe flood events. The existing drainage infrastructure may be insufficient to handle the increased runoff, exacerbating the risk.

Heatwaves are becoming more common and intense, posing a threat to public health, especially for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. The urban heat island effect can further amplify temperatures in built-up areas.

Bushfire risk is present due to the proximity of bushland. Hot, dry conditions during summer increase the likelihood of bushfires, which can threaten homes and property.

While coastal risks are minimal due to Hornsby's inland location, the suburb is still indirectly affected by broader climate change impacts on the region.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Hornsby Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Hornsby Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Hornsby?

The main risks are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland.

How is Hornsby Shire Council addressing climate change?

Hornsby Shire Council is developing and implementing strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change, including improving drainage infrastructure and promoting water conservation.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Hornsby?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

How can I protect my property from bushfires in Hornsby?

Clear vegetation around your home, maintain your gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan in place.

Where can I find information on flood risks in Hornsby?

Hornsby Shire Council provides flood maps and information on flood risks on its website.

Will climate change affect my insurance premiums in Hornsby?

Potentially, yes. Insurance premiums may increase due to the increased risk of flooding and bushfires.

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