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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Kempsey, NSW

Kempsey, New South Wales· Kempsey Shire Council· 2440
High Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Kempsey faces significant climate risks, particularly from flooding and heatwaves. Bushfire risk is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

7.2/10
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
8.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
3.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.0/10

Kempsey experiences high temperatures during summer, with heatwaves becoming more frequent and intense. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

8.5/10

Kempsey is highly susceptible to flooding due to its location on the Macleay River floodplain. The risk is expected to increase with climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Riverine flooding

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.8

2050

9.2

Data source

coastal Risk

3.0/10

Coastal risk is relatively low for Kempsey, as it is located inland. However, sea level rise and coastal erosion could indirectly impact the region.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.3

2050

3.6

Data source

bushfire Risk

6.0/10

Bushfire risk is moderate, with areas surrounding Kempsey prone to bushfires, especially during dry periods. Climate change is projected to exacerbate bushfire conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the high flood risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
  • 3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property value and comfort.
  • 4.Review insurance options and costs.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Macleay River
Elevation Range
5-15 meters
Flood Zone
High Risk

Kempsey has a long history of flooding, with major events occurring in 1949, 1950, 1963, 2011 and 2013. The council has implemented various flood mitigation measures, but the risk remains significant.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-prone-land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The areas surrounding Kempsey are designated as bushfire-prone, requiring properties to adhere to specific building standards and vegetation management practices.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Kempsey experiences several days above 35°C during summer, increasing the risk of heat stress and heatstroke.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
15 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodMajor

Major flooding of the Macleay River caused widespread damage and evacuations in Kempsey.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas surrounding Kempsey, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Flooding along the Macleay River impacted Kempsey, causing road closures and property damage.

Source
2017
stormModerate

Severe storms caused flash flooding and property damage in Kempsey.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood8.511.5(+3.0)14.5(+6.0)
bushfire6.08.0(+2.0)10.0(+4.0)
heat7.011.0(+4.0)14.0(+7.0)
coastal3.04.0(+1.0)5.0(+2.0)

By 2030, Kempsey is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly flooding and heatwaves. Bushfire risk is also expected to increase. Adaptation measures are needed to protect the community and infrastructure.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve flood defenses

Immediate

Invest in flood levees, drainage improvements, and early warning systems to reduce the impact of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Reduce bushfire risk

Near-term

Implement vegetation management programs, improve building standards, and provide community education to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Manage heatwave risk

Immediate

Develop heatwave management plans, provide cooling centers, and promote public awareness of heatwave risks.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Plan for sea level rise

Long-term

Assess the potential impacts of sea level rise on low-lying areas and develop adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Kempsey's Climate Risk Profile

Kempsey, located in the Macleay Valley, is highly vulnerable to flooding due to its position on the Macleay River floodplain. Historical flood events have caused significant damage and disruption to the community. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of flooding, posing a growing threat to residents and infrastructure.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, with areas surrounding Kempsey prone to bushfires during dry periods. The risk is projected to increase with climate change, as hotter and drier conditions create more favorable conditions for bushfires to ignite and spread. Residents should be aware of bushfire risks and take steps to protect their properties.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Kempsey, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Climate change is driving up average temperatures and increasing the frequency of extreme heat events. Residents should take precautions to stay cool and hydrated during heatwaves.

While coastal risks are relatively low for Kempsey, sea level rise and coastal erosion could indirectly impact the region. Changes in coastal processes could affect the local economy and environment. It is important to monitor coastal changes and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Kempsey Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Kempsey Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the main climate risk in Kempsey?

The main climate risk in Kempsey is flooding, due to its location on the Macleay River floodplain.

How is climate change affecting Kempsey?

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in Kempsey, such as floods, bushfires, and heatwaves.

What can I do to prepare for flooding in Kempsey?

You can prepare for flooding by developing a flood plan, purchasing flood insurance, and staying informed about flood warnings.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The Kempsey Shire Council is developing climate change adaptation strategies and implementing measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Kempsey?

You can find more information about climate change in Kempsey on the Kempsey Shire Council website and the NSW Department of Planning and Environment website.

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