Climate Risk in Kurnell, NSW
Kurnell faces a number of climate-related risks, including flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change. Residents and property owners should take steps to prepare for these risks.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Kurnell is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This will increase the risk of heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses, particularly for vulnerable populations.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.5
2050
8.5
flood Risk
Kurnell faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to waterways. Increased rainfall intensity and sea level rise are expected to exacerbate this risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Storm surge
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.5
2050
7.5
coastal Risk
Kurnell is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise and storm surge. This could damage property and infrastructure, and displace residents.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Storm surge
- ·Coastal erosion
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
5.5
2050
6.5
bushfire Risk
Kurnell has a moderate bushfire risk due to its proximity to the Royal National Park. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·High temperatures
- ·Strong winds
Projections (RCP4.5)
2030
4.2
2050
4.5
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums are likely to increase in the future due to climate change risks.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to sea level rise and coastal erosion.
- 3.Inquire about past flood or bushfire events.
- 4.Consider the cost of insurance and potential for increased premiums.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Botany Bay
- Elevation Range
- 0-20 meters
- Flood Zone
- Coastal floodplain
Several areas in Kurnell are prone to flash flooding during heavy rainfall events.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent to Royal National Park
- Planning Overlay
- https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-prone-land
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
The western edge of Kurnell borders the Royal National Park, increasing bushfire risk.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 27.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3 days
Kurnell experiences several days above 30°C each summer, increasing heat stress risk.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 0.5 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Low-lying areas are exposed to sea level rise.
- Erosion Risk
- Moderate erosion risk along the coastline.
Historical Climate Events
Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in parts of Kurnell, leading to road closures and property damage.
SourceBushfires in the Royal National Park threatened Kurnell, requiring residents to be prepared for evacuation.
SourceKurnell experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several days.
SourceA severe storm caused significant coastal erosion in Kurnell, damaging beaches and infrastructure.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 6.0 | 6.5(+0.5) | 7.0(+1.0) |
| bushfire | 4.0 | 4.2(+0.2) | 4.5(+0.5) |
| heat | 7.0 | 7.4(+0.4) | 8.5(+1.5) |
| coastal | 5.0 | 5.3(+0.3) | 6.0(+1.0) |
By 2030, Kurnell is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk under the RCP4.5 scenario. Flooding and heat risks are expected to increase the most, followed by coastal erosion and bushfire risks.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Improve drainage infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade drainage systems to reduce the risk of flash flooding during heavy rainfall events.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreStrengthen coastal defenses
Long-termConstruct seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against sea level rise and storm surge.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreDevelop a heatwave response plan
ImmediateImplement a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreReduce bushfire risk
Near-termImplement bushfire mitigation measures, such as clearing vegetation around properties and conducting controlled burns.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreRaise awareness of climate risks
ImmediateEducate residents about the risks of climate change and how to prepare for them.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Kurnell's Climate Risk Profile
Kurnell is a suburb located in the Sutherland Shire, south of Sydney. It is known for its beaches, national park, and industrial area. The suburb is vulnerable to a range of climate change impacts, including sea level rise, increased flooding, more intense heatwaves, and bushfires.
Sea level rise poses a significant threat to Kurnell, with low-lying areas at risk of inundation. Coastal erosion is also a concern, as rising sea levels and storm surges can damage beaches and infrastructure. Increased rainfall intensity can lead to more frequent and severe flooding, particularly in areas near waterways.
Heatwaves are expected to become more common and intense in Kurnell, increasing the risk of heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses. Bushfires are also a threat, particularly during hot, dry periods. The Royal National Park, which borders Kurnell, is a potential source of bushfires.
Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation measures. Mitigation involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions to slow down climate change. Adaptation involves taking steps to prepare for the impacts of climate change that are already happening or are expected to happen in the future. This includes measures such as building seawalls, improving drainage systems, and developing heatwave response plans.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Sutherland Shire Council
Local Government Resources
Sutherland Shire Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Kurnell?
Kurnell faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion, all of which are expected to worsen with climate change.
How will sea level rise affect Kurnell?
Sea level rise could inundate low-lying areas of Kurnell, damage coastal infrastructure, and increase the risk of coastal erosion.
What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Kurnell?
Stay hydrated, stay cool, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves. Follow advice from NSW Health.
Is my property in Kurnell at risk of flooding?
Check the Sutherland Shire Council's flood maps to determine your property's flood risk. Consider flood insurance if you are in a flood-prone area.
How can I protect my home from bushfires in Kurnell?
Clear vegetation around your home, have a bushfire survival plan, and stay informed about bushfire risks from the NSW RFS.
Where can I find more information about climate change in Kurnell?
Consult the Sutherland Shire Council's website, the NSW Department of Planning and Environment, and the CSIRO for more information.
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