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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Macksville, NSW

Macksville, New South Wales· Nambucca Valley· 2447
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Macksville is a town in New South Wales that faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, potentially impacting property values and community well-being. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
7.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
4.5
Coastal
5.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

4.5/10

Macksville experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

flood Risk

7.5/10

Macksville faces a notable risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Nambucca River and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Riverine flooding

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.0

2050

8.5

Data source

coastal Risk

5.0/10

Macksville faces a moderate coastal risk due to its proximity to the coast and the Nambucca River estuary. Sea level rise and increased storm surge can lead to coastal erosion and inundation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

6.0/10

Bushfire risk in Macksville is moderate, with surrounding bushland posing a threat during dry periods. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to increased flood and bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about past flood or bushfire events.
  • 4.Review insurance options and costs.
  • 5.Consider long-term climate risks when making property decisions.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Nambucca River
Elevation Range
5-15 meters
Flood Zone
Yes

Historical flood events have impacted Macksville, highlighting the need for improved flood mitigation measures.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring adherence to specific building codes and vegetation management practices.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Average January maximum temperatures are expected to increase in the coming decades, leading to more frequent heat stress events.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Major flooding of the Nambucca River caused widespread damage in Macksville.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

Severe bushfires impacted the region surrounding Macksville, causing significant property damage and evacuations.

Source
2017
stormModerate

A severe storm caused flash flooding and property damage in Macksville.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to flooding in low-lying areas of Macksville.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood7.58.0(+0.5)8.5(+1.0)
bushfire6.06.3(+0.3)6.7(+0.7)
heat4.54.7(+0.2)5.0(+0.5)
coastal5.05.3(+0.3)5.6(+0.6)

By 2030, Macksville is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and bushfire risk due to more extreme rainfall events and prolonged dry periods.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in improved flood defenses, such as levees and drainage systems, to protect properties and infrastructure from increased flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Bushfire Management Plans

Near-term

Develop and implement comprehensive bushfire management plans, including vegetation management, fire breaks, and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Response Plan

Immediate

Establish a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal Erosion Mitigation

Long-term

Implement coastal erosion mitigation measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to protect properties and infrastructure from sea level rise and storm surge.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Improve Building Codes

Near-term

Update building codes to ensure new construction is resilient to climate change impacts, including flood, bushfire, and heat risks.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Macksville's Climate Risk Profile

Macksville, located in the Nambucca Valley of New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The town's proximity to the Nambucca River makes it particularly susceptible to flooding, with climate change projected to increase rainfall intensity and riverine flooding events. This poses a significant threat to residential and commercial properties, as well as critical infrastructure.

Bushfire risk is also a concern for Macksville, with surrounding bushland creating a potential fire hazard during dry periods. Rising temperatures and drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires, potentially impacting the town and its residents.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Macksville, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. The urban heat island effect can further exacerbate heat stress in built-up areas.

Finally, Macksville's coastal location exposes it to the impacts of sea level rise and increased storm surge. Coastal erosion and inundation can threaten properties and infrastructure along the Nambucca River estuary. Addressing these climate risks requires proactive adaptation measures and community preparedness.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Nambucca Valley Council

Local Government Resources

Nambucca Valley Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Macksville?

Macksville faces significant risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to climate change. These risks are projected to increase in the coming decades.

How will climate change affect property values in Macksville?

Properties in high-risk areas, such as those prone to flooding or bushfires, may experience a decrease in value as climate change impacts become more pronounced.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Macksville?

The Nambucca Valley Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on the community and infrastructure.

What can residents do to prepare for climate change impacts in Macksville?

Residents can take steps to prepare for climate change impacts by checking flood maps and bushfire prone area designations, assessing their property's vulnerability to heatwaves, and reviewing insurance options.

Where can I find more information about climate change projections for Macksville?

You can find more information about climate change projections for Macksville on the CSIRO website and the NSW Department of Planning and Environment website.

Are there any financial assistance programs available for climate resilience measures?

Check with the Nambucca Valley Council and the NSW government for information on available financial assistance programs for climate resilience measures, such as flood mitigation and bushfire protection.

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