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Climate Risk Assessment for Macleay Island, NSW

Macleay Island, New South Wales· UNKNOWN
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Macleay Island faces a moderate climate risk, primarily from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. The island's low-lying geography makes it particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges. Residents should prepare for increasing climate impacts in the coming decades.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.1
Coastal
5.4

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.1/10

Macleay Island is experiencing increasing heatwaves and higher average temperatures, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.6

2050

8.2

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Macleay Island faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall and storm surges. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

5.4/10

Macleay Island is exposed to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise and storm surges.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.8

2050

6.3

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.2/10

The risk of bushfires on Macleay Island is moderate, influenced by dry vegetation and prevailing winds during the fire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Prevailing winds
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

4.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and coastal erosion risk assessments.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves and bushfires.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider the long-term impacts of climate change on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Moreton Bay
Elevation Range
0-20m
Flood Zone
Coastal Inundation Area

Low-lying areas around the coast are most vulnerable.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland areas
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Areas near the island's interior bushland are at higher risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding on Macleay Island.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Macleay Island, with temperatures exceeding 35°C for several days.

Source
2020
stormModerate

A severe storm brought strong winds and heavy rain to Macleay Island, causing minor damage.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall and king tides caused flooding in low-lying coastal areas of Macleay Island.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.56.8(+0.3)7.2(+0.7)
bushfire4.24.3(+0.1)4.4(+0.2)
heat7.17.7(+0.6)8.1(+1.0)
coastal5.45.8(+0.4)6.3(+0.9)

By 2030, Macleay Island is projected to experience increased flooding, more frequent heatwaves, and greater coastal erosion due to sea level rise.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding from heavy rainfall.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Protect coastal ecosystems

Near-term

Preserve and restore mangroves and other coastal vegetation to provide natural protection against erosion and storm surges.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Develop a heatwave management plan

Immediate

Implement strategies to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, such as establishing cooling centers and providing public health information.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Raise awareness of climate risks

Long-term

Educate the community about the impacts of climate change and encourage proactive adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen building codes

Long-term

Update building codes to ensure that new construction is resilient to climate change impacts, such as flooding and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Macleay Island's Climate Risk Profile

Macleay Island, located in Moreton Bay, is susceptible to a range of climate-related risks. The island's low elevation and coastal location make it vulnerable to flooding from heavy rainfall and storm surges. Sea level rise is expected to exacerbate these risks, leading to increased coastal erosion and inundation.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a threat to the health of residents, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Bushfire risk is also present, particularly during dry periods with strong winds. Changes in rainfall patterns could further impact the island's ecosystems and water resources.

The community needs to adapt to these changing conditions by implementing measures to reduce flood risk, improve heat resilience, and manage bushfire hazards. Protecting natural coastal defenses, such as mangroves and wetlands, can help mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and storm surges.

Sustainable development practices are essential to ensure the long-term viability of Macleay Island. This includes careful planning of new developments, promoting water conservation, and investing in renewable energy sources. Community engagement and education are crucial to raise awareness of climate risks and encourage proactive adaptation measures.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Redland City Council

Local Government Resources

Redland City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Macleay Island?

Macleay Island is primarily at risk from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to sea level rise and storm surges.

How will climate change affect property values on Macleay Island?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions due to increased flooding and coastal erosion risks. Insurance premiums are also likely to increase.

What can I do to protect my home from flooding?

Consider raising the foundation of your home, installing flood barriers, and improving drainage around your property.

How can I prepare for heatwaves on Macleay Island?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Consider installing air conditioning or visiting a cooling center.

What is the council doing to address climate change on Macleay Island?

Redland City Council is implementing a range of measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change, including improving drainage infrastructure and protecting coastal ecosystems.

Where can I find more information about climate change projections for Macleay Island?

The Climate Change in Australia website provides detailed climate projections for regions across Australia, including Macleay Island.

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