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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Merimbula, NSW

Merimbula, New South Wales· Bega Valley· 2548
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Merimbula faces increasing risks from climate change, particularly from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
6.8
Coastal
5.7

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

6.8/10

Merimbula is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially during summer.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.3

2050

7.8

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Merimbula faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the coast and waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding, particularly in low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

5.7/10

Merimbula is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. This threatens coastal infrastructure and ecosystems.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.2

2050

6.7

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.2/10

The area around Merimbula has a moderate bushfire risk. Drier conditions and increased fuel loads can elevate the risk during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier climate
  • ·Increased fuel load
  • ·Higher temperatures

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone land maps.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of climate change on insurance premiums.
  • 4.Inquire about council plans for climate adaptation.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Merimbula Lake
Elevation Range
0-50m
Flood Zone
Coastal and riverine floodplains

Low-lying areas around Merimbula Lake are prone to flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
NSW Rural Fire Service Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties adjacent to bushland are at higher risk of bushfire.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
26.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Merimbula.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate exposure to sea level rise
Erosion Risk
Moderate erosion risk

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding occurred in the Bega Valley region, impacting Merimbula with road closures and property damage.

Source
2018
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas surrounding Merimbula, leading to evacuations and property damage.

Source
2020
bushfireMajor

The Black Summer bushfires had a significant impact on the region, with widespread smoke and air quality issues in Merimbula.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in Merimbula, leading to road closures and property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire4.24.5(+0.3)4.9(+0.7)
heat6.87.5(+0.7)8.0(+1.2)
coastal5.76.1(+0.4)6.6(+0.9)

By 2030, Merimbula is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, as well as a higher risk of flooding and coastal erosion.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flash flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Bushfire Mitigation Strategies

Near-term

Reduce fuel loads around properties and implement community education programs to prepare for bushfires.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Protect Coastal Areas

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures such as seawalls and beach nourishment to reduce the impact of sea level rise and erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Merimbula's Climate Risk Profile

Merimbula, located on the Sapphire Coast of New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The region is experiencing rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and sea level rise, all of which contribute to increased risks from various hazards.

Flooding is a significant concern for Merimbula, with low-lying areas particularly susceptible to inundation during heavy rainfall events. The risk is exacerbated by sea level rise, which increases the likelihood of coastal flooding. Bushfire risk is also elevated due to drier conditions and increased fuel loads in the surrounding bushland.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a threat to public health, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses. Coastal erosion is another major concern, threatening beaches, infrastructure, and ecosystems.

Addressing these challenges requires a coordinated effort from local government, residents, and businesses. Adaptation measures such as improved drainage, bushfire mitigation strategies, and coastal protection measures are essential to building resilience to climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW Rural Fire Service · NSW State Emergency Service · NSW Department of Planning and Environment

Local Government Resources

Bega Valley Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Merimbula?

The main climate change risks in Merimbula are flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion.

How is the council addressing climate change?

The Bega Valley Shire Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to reduce the risks from climate change.

What can I do to prepare for a flood?

You can prepare for a flood by developing a flood plan, elevating your belongings, and staying informed about weather warnings.

How can I protect my property from bushfires?

You can protect your property from bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, installing a sprinkler system, and having a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find information about emergency services in Merimbula?

You can find information about emergency services on the NSW State Emergency Service (SES) website.

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