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Climate Risk Profile: Minnamurra, NSW

Minnamurra, New South Wales· UNKNOWN· 2533
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Minnamurra faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, potentially impacting property values and community well-being. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.1
Coastal
5.4

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.1/10

Minnamurra is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher average temperatures can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.6

2050

8.1

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Minnamurra faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Minnamurra River and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

5.4/10

Minnamurra faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including sea level rise and coastal erosion. These factors could impact infrastructure and property values.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.9

2050

6.4

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.2/10

The risk of bushfire in Minnamurra is moderate, with bushland located nearby. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
  • 3.Inquire about past flood or bushfire events.
  • 4.Consider the cost of insurance and potential for increased premiums.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Minnamurra River
Elevation Range
0-30 meters
Flood Zone
Yes

The Minnamurra River has a history of flooding, and low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area west of Minnamurra is designated as a bushfire-prone area.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Average January maximum temperature is based on Nowra BOM data. Heat stress events are increasing.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding along the Minnamurra River caused property damage and road closures.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires near Minnamurra prompted evacuations and threatened properties.

Source
2017
stormModerate

Severe storms caused coastal erosion and damage to infrastructure.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to flash flooding in low-lying areas of Minnamurra.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire4.24.7(+0.5)5.2(+1.0)
heat7.17.6(+0.5)8.1(+1.0)
coastal5.45.9(+0.5)6.4(+1.0)

By 2030, Minnamurra is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with higher temperatures, more intense rainfall, and rising sea levels.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to protect against flooding, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement community education programs and assist residents in preparing their properties for bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Response Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations during periods of extreme heat.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal Management Strategy

Long-term

Develop a coastal management strategy to address sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Minnamurra's Climate Risk Profile

Minnamurra, located on the New South Wales coast, is vulnerable to a range of climate-related risks. The suburb's proximity to the Minnamurra River increases its susceptibility to flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change is projected to increase rainfall intensity, leading to more frequent and severe flood events.

The surrounding bushland also poses a bushfire risk to Minnamurra. Hotter, drier conditions can extend the bushfire season and increase the likelihood of fires spreading to residential areas. Residents should maintain their properties and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Heatwaves are another growing concern for Minnamurra. As average temperatures rise, the suburb is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, which can pose health risks, especially for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.

Finally, Minnamurra's coastal location makes it vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. These factors could impact infrastructure, property values, and the natural environment. Planning for coastal adaptation is essential to protect the community from these risks.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · Shellharbour City Council

Local Government Resources

Shellharbour City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Minnamurra?

Minnamurra faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion, all of which are expected to worsen with climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Minnamurra?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline as climate risks become more apparent.

What can I do to prepare my property for climate change?

You can take steps to reduce your property's vulnerability to flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, such as installing flood barriers, clearing vegetation, and improving insulation.

Where can I find information about local climate risks and adaptation strategies?

You can find information on the Shellharbour City Council website and the NSW government's environment website.

Is Minnamurra a good place to invest in property given the climate risks?

While Minnamurra is a desirable location, potential buyers should carefully consider the climate risks and take steps to mitigate their exposure.

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