Climate Risk in Narrabeen, NSW

Narrabeen, New South Wales· Northern Beaches· 2101
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Narrabeen is a coastal suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate risks from climate change. The primary concerns are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion, which are expected to worsen in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.1
Coastal
5.4

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.1/10

Narrabeen experiences a high risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Increased temperatures can pose health risks to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.8

2050

8.5

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Narrabeen faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Narrabeen Lagoon and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

5.4/10

Narrabeen faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including erosion and inundation, due to its coastal location. Sea level rise and storm surges can exacerbate these risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.8

2050

6.2

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.2/10

Bushfire risk in Narrabeen is moderate, with some areas bordering bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

4.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone areas.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to sea level rise.
  • 3.Consider the cost of insurance and potential mitigation measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Narrabeen Lagoon
Elevation Range
0-30 meters
Flood Zone
Areas near Narrabeen Lagoon are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood events have impacted properties along the lagoon and lower-lying areas.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Some properties border Garigal National Park.
Planning Overlay
Check NSW RFS website for bushfire prone areas.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain firebreaks and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Elderly and vulnerable residents are at higher risk during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas are vulnerable to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Beach erosion is an ongoing concern.

Historical Climate Events

2007
stormModerate

A severe storm caused flash flooding and damage to properties in Narrabeen.

Source
2013
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to flooding of Narrabeen Lagoon and surrounding areas.

Source
2017
stormModerate

A coastal storm caused erosion and damage to beachfront properties.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased demand for emergency services.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.56.8(+0.3)7.2(+0.7)
bushfire4.24.3(+0.1)4.5(+0.3)
heat7.17.9(+0.8)8.6(+1.5)
coastal5.45.8(+0.4)6.3(+0.9)

By 2030, Narrabeen is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a moderate rise in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Coastal erosion will also become more pronounced.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flash flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Coastal Protection Measures

Near-term

Construct seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect beachfront properties from erosion and sea level rise.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Establish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Educate residents about bushfire risks and encourage them to develop bushfire survival plans.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Raise Awareness of Climate Risks

Long-term

Conduct community workshops and provide information about climate change impacts and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Narrabeen's Climate Risk Profile

Narrabeen, located on the Northern Beaches of Sydney, is vulnerable to several climate change impacts. The suburb's proximity to Narrabeen Lagoon and the coast makes it susceptible to flooding from heavy rainfall and rising sea levels. Heatwaves are also a significant concern, with temperatures projected to increase in the coming decades, posing risks to public health, especially for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.

Bushfire risk is present due to the surrounding bushland, although it is less severe than in some other parts of NSW. Coastal erosion is an ongoing issue, and sea level rise is expected to exacerbate this problem, threatening beachfront properties and infrastructure.

The Northern Beaches Council is developing strategies to mitigate these risks, including improving drainage infrastructure, implementing coastal management plans, and promoting community awareness. However, individual preparedness is also crucial for residents to protect themselves and their properties.

Climate projections indicate that Narrabeen will experience more frequent and intense extreme weather events in the future. This includes more severe heatwaves, increased rainfall intensity, and rising sea levels. These changes will have significant implications for the suburb's environment, economy, and community.

Adapting to these changes will require a collaborative effort from all levels of government, as well as the active participation of residents and businesses. By taking proactive measures, Narrabeen can build resilience and minimize the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Northern Beaches Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Narrabeen?

The main risks are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion, which are expected to worsen with climate change.

How will sea level rise affect Narrabeen?

Sea level rise will increase the risk of coastal erosion and inundation, threatening beachfront properties and infrastructure.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Narrabeen?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Narrabeen?

The Northern Beaches Council provides flood maps and information on its website.

How can I protect my property from bushfires in Narrabeen?

Maintain firebreaks, clear vegetation around your home, and have a bushfire survival plan.

Is climate change going to affect my insurance premiums in Narrabeen?

Yes, it is likely that insurance premiums will increase due to the increased risks of flooding, coastal erosion, and bushfires.

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