Climate Risk Assessment for Narrabri, NSW
Narrabri faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in relation to flooding and heat events. Coastal risk is negligible due to its inland location.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Narrabri experiences high temperatures during summer, with heatwaves becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Urban heat island effect
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.5
2050
7.0
flood Risk
Narrabri faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Namoi River. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Riverine flooding
- ·Urban development
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.0
2050
7.5
coastal Risk
Narrabri is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
1.0
2050
1.0
bushfire Risk
The area surrounding Narrabri has a moderate bushfire risk. Hot, dry conditions and vegetation contribute to the potential for bushfires, particularly during the summer months.
Primary Drivers
- ·Hotter, drier conditions
- ·Increased fuel load
- ·Ignition sources
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
4.5
2050
5.0
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.
Price Impact
Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
- 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
- 3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property value and comfort.
- 4.Review insurance options and premiums.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Namoi River
- Elevation Range
- 210-230m
- Flood Zone
- Areas adjacent to the Namoi River are designated as flood zones.
Historical flood events have impacted Narrabri, highlighting the need for effective flood management strategies.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent to Pilliga Scrub
- Planning Overlay
- RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
The Pilliga Scrub to the west of Narrabri increases the bushfire risk.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 34°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 5 days
Narrabri experiences several days above 35°C during summer.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 500 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Not applicable
- Erosion Risk
- Not applicable
Historical Climate Events
Significant flooding of the Namoi River impacted Narrabri, causing property damage and disruptions to infrastructure.
SourceProlonged drought conditions severely impacted agricultural production and water resources in the Narrabri region.
SourceBushfires in the Pilliga Scrub threatened Narrabri, requiring firefighting efforts to protect the town.
SourceA prolonged heatwave in January 2009 resulted in record high temperatures and increased demand on health services.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 6.5 | 7.0(+0.5) | 7.5(+1.0) |
| bushfire | 4.0 | 4.2(+0.2) | 4.5(+0.5) |
| heat | 6.0 | 6.4(+0.4) | 6.9(+0.9) |
| coastal | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
By 2030, Narrabri is projected to experience an increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Heatwave frequency and intensity are also expected to rise, posing challenges for public health. Bushfire risk will also increase slightly.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Upgrade Flood Defenses
Near-termInvest in levees and drainage systems to protect Narrabri from flooding.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreImprove Bushfire Preparedness
Near-termImplement bushfire mitigation measures, such as hazard reduction burns and community education programs.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreDevelop Heatwave Management Plan
ImmediateCreate a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.
Est. cost: Low
Learn morePromote Water Conservation
Long-termEncourage water conservation measures to address drought risks.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreEnhance Emergency Response Capabilities
Near-termStrengthen emergency services and community resilience to respond to climate-related disasters.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreAbout Narrabri's Climate Risk Profile
Narrabri, located in the Namoi Valley of New South Wales, is susceptible to various climate-related hazards. The primary concern is flooding from the Namoi River, which can inundate low-lying areas of the town. Climate change projections indicate an increase in rainfall intensity, leading to a higher likelihood of severe flood events.
Bushfire risk is also a factor, especially during the hot, dry summer months. The surrounding vegetation provides ample fuel for fires, and increased temperatures and reduced rainfall can create ideal conditions for ignition and spread. While not as immediate a threat as flooding, bushfires pose a significant risk to property and human safety.
Heatwaves are another growing concern for Narrabri. The town already experiences high temperatures during summer, and climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This can lead to heat stress, particularly among vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Coastal risks are minimal due to Narrabri's inland location. However, the town may indirectly experience impacts from coastal changes, such as disruptions to supply chains or increased migration from coastal areas. Adaptation measures are needed to mitigate the impacts of climate change on Narrabri, focusing on flood mitigation, bushfire preparedness, and heatwave management.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Narrabri Shire Council
Local Government Resources
Narrabri Shire Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate risks facing Narrabri?
Narrabri faces risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to worsen with climate change.
How is the Narrabri Shire Council addressing climate change?
The council is developing and implementing strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change, including flood mitigation and bushfire preparedness measures.
What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves in Narrabri?
Residents can stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.
Where can I find information about flood risks in Narrabri?
Information about flood risks can be found on the Narrabri Shire Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.
What is the long-term outlook for climate change in Narrabri?
Climate projections indicate that Narrabri will experience more frequent and intense extreme weather events, requiring ongoing adaptation efforts.
Are there any government grants available for climate resilience measures in Narrabri?
Yes, both state and federal governments offer grants for projects that improve climate resilience. Check the relevant government websites for current opportunities.
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