Climate Risk Assessment for Narrabri, NSW

Narrabri, New South Wales· Narrabri Shire· 2390
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Narrabri faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in relation to flooding and heat events. Coastal risk is negligible due to its inland location.

Overall Risk Score

5.2/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

6.0/10

Narrabri experiences high temperatures during summer, with heatwaves becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Narrabri faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Namoi River. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Narrabri is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.0/10

The area surrounding Narrabri has a moderate bushfire risk. Hot, dry conditions and vegetation contribute to the potential for bushfires, particularly during the summer months.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Hotter, drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load
  • ·Ignition sources

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
  • 3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property value and comfort.
  • 4.Review insurance options and premiums.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Namoi River
Elevation Range
210-230m
Flood Zone
Areas adjacent to the Namoi River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood events have impacted Narrabri, highlighting the need for effective flood management strategies.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Pilliga Scrub
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The Pilliga Scrub to the west of Narrabri increases the bushfire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
34°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Narrabri experiences several days above 35°C during summer.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
500 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2012
floodModerate

Significant flooding of the Namoi River impacted Narrabri, causing property damage and disruptions to infrastructure.

Source
2019
droughtMajor

Prolonged drought conditions severely impacted agricultural production and water resources in the Narrabri region.

Source
2017
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the Pilliga Scrub threatened Narrabri, requiring firefighting efforts to protect the town.

Source
2009
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January 2009 resulted in record high temperatures and increased demand on health services.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire4.04.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
heat6.06.4(+0.4)6.9(+0.9)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Narrabri is projected to experience an increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Heatwave frequency and intensity are also expected to rise, posing challenges for public health. Bushfire risk will also increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in levees and drainage systems to protect Narrabri from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Improve Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as hazard reduction burns and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Create a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to address drought risks.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance Emergency Response Capabilities

Near-term

Strengthen emergency services and community resilience to respond to climate-related disasters.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Narrabri's Climate Risk Profile

Narrabri, located in the Namoi Valley of New South Wales, is susceptible to various climate-related hazards. The primary concern is flooding from the Namoi River, which can inundate low-lying areas of the town. Climate change projections indicate an increase in rainfall intensity, leading to a higher likelihood of severe flood events.

Bushfire risk is also a factor, especially during the hot, dry summer months. The surrounding vegetation provides ample fuel for fires, and increased temperatures and reduced rainfall can create ideal conditions for ignition and spread. While not as immediate a threat as flooding, bushfires pose a significant risk to property and human safety.

Heatwaves are another growing concern for Narrabri. The town already experiences high temperatures during summer, and climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This can lead to heat stress, particularly among vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Coastal risks are minimal due to Narrabri's inland location. However, the town may indirectly experience impacts from coastal changes, such as disruptions to supply chains or increased migration from coastal areas. Adaptation measures are needed to mitigate the impacts of climate change on Narrabri, focusing on flood mitigation, bushfire preparedness, and heatwave management.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Narrabri Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Narrabri?

Narrabri faces risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to worsen with climate change.

How is the Narrabri Shire Council addressing climate change?

The council is developing and implementing strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change, including flood mitigation and bushfire preparedness measures.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves in Narrabri?

Residents can stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Narrabri?

Information about flood risks can be found on the Narrabri Shire Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

What is the long-term outlook for climate change in Narrabri?

Climate projections indicate that Narrabri will experience more frequent and intense extreme weather events, requiring ongoing adaptation efforts.

Are there any government grants available for climate resilience measures in Narrabri?

Yes, both state and federal governments offer grants for projects that improve climate resilience. Check the relevant government websites for current opportunities.

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