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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Orange, NSW

Orange, New South Wales· UNKNOWN· 2800
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Orange, NSW, faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the future, particularly regarding flooding and heat.

Overall Risk Score

5.2/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

6.0/10

Orange is experiencing increasing heat risk with rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Orange experiences moderate flood risk due to its location within the Belubula River catchment. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Orange is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.0/10

Bushfire risk in Orange is moderate, with areas of bushland surrounding the town. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the risk of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Wind

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone land overlays.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of climate change on insurance premiums.
  • 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Belubula River
Elevation Range
860m - 960m
Flood Zone
Areas along the Belubula River and its tributaries are designated as flood zones.

Orange City Council maintains flood maps and provides information to residents about flood risks.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Areas of bushland are located within 5km of the city center.
Planning Overlay
RFS bushfire prone land overlay applies to areas surrounding Orange.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The NSW Rural Fire Service provides information and resources to residents about bushfire safety.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Orange, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
250 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in parts of Orange, affecting homes and businesses.

Source
2013
bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Orange threatened properties but was contained by firefighters.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

Orange experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Significant rainfall led to flash flooding in Orange, causing road closures and property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire4.04.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
heat6.06.8(+0.8)7.5(+1.5)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Orange is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and flooding events. Bushfire risk may also increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve flood defenses

Near-term

Upgrade drainage infrastructure and build levees to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement heatwave early warning system

Immediate

Develop a system to alert residents to impending heatwaves and provide advice on how to stay safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Near-term

Encourage residents and businesses to reduce water consumption through education and incentives.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire preparedness

Long-term

Undertake regular property maintenance to reduce bushfire risk, such as clearing gutters and trimming trees.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Orange's Climate Risk Profile

Orange, located in the Central Tablelands of New South Wales, is a regional city with a diverse economy and a growing population. The city's climate is characterized by warm summers and cool winters, with moderate rainfall throughout the year.

However, Orange is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Rising temperatures are leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to public health, particularly for vulnerable populations. Changes in rainfall patterns are increasing the risk of both flooding and drought, impacting agriculture and water resources.

The Belubula River catchment is prone to flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. Urban development and changes in land use are also contributing to increased flood risk. Bushfire risk is also a concern, particularly in areas surrounding the city that are adjacent to bushland.

Addressing these climate risks will require a coordinated effort from local government, businesses, and the community. Adaptation measures such as improving flood defenses, implementing heatwave early warning systems, and promoting water conservation are essential to building resilience to climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS

Local Government Resources

Orange City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Orange?

The main climate change risks in Orange are increased heatwaves, flooding, and bushfire risk.

How is Orange City Council addressing climate change?

Orange City Council is developing and implementing a climate adaptation strategy to reduce the city's vulnerability to climate change.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Orange?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

How can I protect my property from flooding in Orange?

Check flood maps, raise electrical outlets, and consider installing flood barriers.

What should I do if a bushfire threatens my property in Orange?

Follow the advice of the NSW Rural Fire Service, evacuate if necessary, and have a bushfire survival plan.

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