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Climate Risk Profile: Picton, NSW

Picton, New South Wales· Wollondilly· 2571
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Picton is a suburb in the Wollondilly Shire, NSW, that faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and bushfires. The area is also subject to increasing heatwaves. Residents should stay informed and prepared for potential climate-related events.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

4.0/10

Picton experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures during summer months. Heatwaves can pose a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Picton faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Stonequarry Creek and other waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding, impacting residential and commercial areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Picton is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP2.6)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

7.0/10

Picton has a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience slower price growth.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
  • 3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand coverage.
  • 4.Consider potential impacts of climate change on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Stonequarry Creek
Elevation Range
180-220m
Flood Zone
Yes

Several properties in low-lying areas near Stonequarry Creek have a history of flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Much of Picton is designated as a bushfire-prone area.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Average January maximum temperatures are expected to increase in the coming decades.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
70 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
None
Erosion Risk
None

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in Picton due to heavy rainfall, causing damage to homes and businesses.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

Bushfires threatened Picton, leading to evacuations and property damage in surrounding areas.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

Picton experienced a prolonged heatwave with record-breaking temperatures, impacting public health.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in Picton, inundating roads and properties.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.56.7(+0.2)7.0(+0.5)
bushfire7.07.1(+0.1)7.3(+0.3)
heat4.04.4(+0.4)5.0(+1.0)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Picton is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity. Flood risk may also increase due to more intense rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as improved drainage systems and flood barriers.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire management strategies, including vegetation clearing and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plan

Near-term

Create a heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during periods of drought and heat.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Picton's Climate Risk Profile

Picton, located in the Wollondilly Shire of New South Wales, is a historic town with a growing population. The suburb's climate is characterized by warm summers and mild winters, but it is increasingly vulnerable to climate change impacts.

Flooding is a significant concern for Picton due to its proximity to Stonequarry Creek and other waterways. Intense rainfall events can cause flash flooding, affecting homes, businesses, and infrastructure. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events.

Bushfire risk is also high in Picton, as the suburb is surrounded by bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds during the bushfire season can create dangerous conditions. Residents need to be prepared and aware of bushfire safety measures.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Picton, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. It is important to stay hydrated and take precautions during periods of extreme heat.

While Picton is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as sea-level rise and extreme weather events, can indirectly affect the region. Addressing these challenges requires a coordinated effort from residents, businesses, and local government.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Wollondilly Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Wollondilly Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Picton?

The main climate risks in Picton are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase with climate change.

How can I prepare for flooding in Picton?

You can prepare for flooding by staying informed about flood warnings, having an emergency plan, and protecting your property with sandbags or flood barriers.

What should I do during a bushfire in Picton?

During a bushfire, follow the advice of emergency services, evacuate if necessary, and protect your home by clearing vegetation and having a water supply.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave in Picton?

During a heatwave, stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Picton?

You can find more information about climate change in Picton from the Wollondilly Shire Council, the NSW Government, and the CSIRO.

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