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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Port Macquarie, NSW

Port Macquarie, New South Wales· UNKNOWN
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Port Macquarie faces increasing climate risks, particularly from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. The area's location on the Hastings River and its coastal setting make it vulnerable to these hazards. Residents and property owners should take steps to prepare for these risks.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.1
Coastal
5.4

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.1/10

Port Macquarie is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.6

2050

8.1

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Port Macquarie faces a notable risk of flooding due to its location on the Hastings River and low-lying areas. Heavy rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

5.4/10

Port Macquarie is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. Low-lying coastal areas are at particular risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.9

2050

6.4

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.2/10

The area surrounding Port Macquarie has a moderate bushfire risk, particularly in areas adjacent to bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase in areas at high risk of flooding and coastal erosion.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and coastal erosion risk assessments.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to bushfires.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of heatwaves on the property.
  • 4.Review insurance options and premiums.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Hastings River
Elevation Range
0-50 meters
Flood Zone
Areas along the Hastings River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood events have impacted residential and commercial areas in Port Macquarie.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Areas west and south of Port Macquarie are adjacent to bushland.
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-prone-land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The Rural Fire Service provides information on bushfire prone areas and safety guidelines.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The Bureau of Meteorology provides historical temperature data for Port Macquarie.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying coastal areas are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Beaches and foreshores are at risk of erosion.

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding occurred in the Hastings River, inundating low-lying areas of Port Macquarie.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires threatened areas near Port Macquarie, requiring evacuations and property protection.

Source
2017
stormModerate

Severe storms caused damage to property and infrastructure in Port Macquarie.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Port Macquarie, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire4.24.5(+0.3)4.8(+0.6)
heat7.17.8(+0.7)8.3(+1.2)
coastal5.45.8(+0.4)6.2(+0.8)

By 2030, Port Macquarie is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including floods, heatwaves, and coastal erosion.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade flood defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to protect low-lying areas from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement heatwave early warning systems

Immediate

Develop a system to alert vulnerable populations to impending heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Protect coastal areas

Long-term

Implement measures to reduce coastal erosion and protect coastal communities.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Improve bushfire preparedness

Near-term

Increase community awareness of bushfire risks and promote preparedness measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Port Macquarie's Climate Risk Profile

Port Macquarie is a coastal town in New South Wales that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The town's location on the Hastings River and its proximity to the coast make it particularly susceptible to flooding and coastal erosion.

Rising temperatures are also a concern, with more frequent and intense heatwaves expected in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

The increasing bushfire risk also needs to be considered. The area surrounding Port Macquarie has a moderate bushfire risk, particularly in areas adjacent to bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Addressing these climate risks will require a combination of adaptation and mitigation measures. Adaptation measures include building flood defenses, improving drainage systems, and implementing heatwave early warning systems. Mitigation measures include reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting sustainable development.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · NSW Department of Planning and Environment

Local Government Resources

Port Macquarie-Hastings Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Port Macquarie?

The main climate change risks in Port Macquarie are flooding, heatwaves, coastal erosion, and bushfires.

How is the council addressing climate change?

The Port Macquarie-Hastings Council is developing and implementing strategies to address climate change, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change.

What can I do to prepare for climate change?

You can take steps to prepare for climate change by understanding the risks, developing an emergency plan, and taking action to reduce your carbon footprint.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Port Macquarie?

You can find more information about climate change in Port Macquarie on the Port Macquarie-Hastings Council website, the NSW Department of Planning and Environment website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

How will sea level rise affect Port Macquarie?

Sea level rise is expected to increase the risk of coastal erosion and inundation in Port Macquarie, particularly in low-lying coastal areas.

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