Climate Risk in South West Rocks, NSW

South West Rocks, New South Wales· Kempsey· 2431
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

South West Rocks faces a medium level of climate risk. The primary concerns are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion, all of which are projected to worsen. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
6.8
Coastal
5.7

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

6.8/10

South West Rocks experiences hot summers, and the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.3

2050

7.8

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

South West Rocks is susceptible to flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to the ocean and rivers. Heavy rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

5.7/10

Located on the coast, South West Rocks is vulnerable to coastal erosion and sea level rise, which can impact infrastructure and property.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.2

2050

6.7

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.2/10

The area surrounding South West Rocks has bushland, increasing the risk of bushfires, especially during dry and windy conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load
  • ·Higher temperatures

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to increased risk of flooding and coastal erosion.

Price Impact

Properties closer to the coast or in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to bushfires.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise and coastal erosion.
  • 4.Inquire about council plans for climate change adaptation.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Macleay River
Elevation Range
0-50m
Flood Zone
Yes

Several properties are located within known flood zones.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The western and southern edges of the suburb border bushfire-prone areas.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate
Erosion Risk
Yes

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Major flooding occurred in the Macleay River, impacting South West Rocks and surrounding areas. Many residents were evacuated.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires threatened the outskirts of South West Rocks, requiring residents to be prepared for evacuation.

Source
2020
stormModerate

Severe storms caused damage to property and infrastructure in South West Rocks.

Source
2017
coastalMinor

Coastal erosion impacted beaches around South West Rocks, requiring remediation efforts.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire4.24.5(+0.3)4.9(+0.7)
heat6.87.3(+0.5)7.8(+1.0)
coastal5.76.1(+0.4)6.5(+0.8)

By 2030, South West Rocks is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly flooding and heatwaves. Sea level rise will continue to exacerbate coastal erosion.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Bushfire Management Plans

Near-term

Develop and implement bushfire management plans to reduce the risk of bushfires impacting the community.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Protect Coastal Ecosystems

Long-term

Protect and restore coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves and dunes, to provide natural protection against coastal erosion.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Response Plans

Immediate

Develop and implement heatwave response plans to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Raise Awareness

Near-term

Educate the community about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About South West Rocks's Climate Risk Profile

South West Rocks, located on the Mid North Coast of New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The area's low-lying topography and proximity to the ocean make it particularly vulnerable to flooding from heavy rainfall and rising sea levels. Bushfire risk is also present due to the surrounding bushland.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a significant threat to public health, especially for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Coastal erosion is an ongoing concern, with the potential to damage infrastructure and property along the coastline.

Climate change projections indicate that these risks will continue to escalate in the coming decades. Increased rainfall intensity is expected to exacerbate flooding, while rising temperatures will lead to more severe heatwaves. Sea level rise will further increase the risk of coastal erosion and inundation.

Addressing these challenges requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to slowing down the rate of climate change. At the local level, measures such as improving drainage infrastructure, implementing bushfire management plans, and protecting coastal ecosystems can help to reduce the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW State Emergency Service · NSW Rural Fire Service · NSW Department of Planning and Environment · Kempsey Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in South West Rocks?

The main climate change risks in South West Rocks are flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. These risks are projected to increase in the coming decades.

How will sea level rise affect South West Rocks?

Sea level rise will increase the risk of coastal erosion and inundation, potentially damaging infrastructure and property along the coastline.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in South West Rocks?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about flood risks in South West Rocks?

You can find information about flood risks on the Kempsey Shire Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

Is my property in South West Rocks at risk from bushfires?

If your property is located near bushland, it may be at risk from bushfires. Check the NSW Rural Fire Service website for information about bushfire prone areas and how to prepare your property.

What is the council doing to address climate change in South West Rocks?

Kempsey Shire Council is developing and implementing climate change adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on the community.

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