Climate Risk in South West Rocks, NSW
South West Rocks faces a medium level of climate risk. The primary concerns are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion, all of which are projected to worsen. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
South West Rocks experiences hot summers, and the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.3
2050
7.8
flood Risk
South West Rocks is susceptible to flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to the ocean and rivers. Heavy rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Urban development
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.0
2050
7.5
coastal Risk
Located on the coast, South West Rocks is vulnerable to coastal erosion and sea level rise, which can impact infrastructure and property.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Increased storm intensity
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.2
2050
6.7
bushfire Risk
The area surrounding South West Rocks has bushland, increasing the risk of bushfires, especially during dry and windy conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Increased fuel load
- ·Higher temperatures
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
4.7
2050
5.2
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Premiums are likely to increase due to increased risk of flooding and coastal erosion.
Price Impact
Properties closer to the coast or in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to bushfires.
- 3.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise and coastal erosion.
- 4.Inquire about council plans for climate change adaptation.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Macleay River
- Elevation Range
- 0-50m
- Flood Zone
- Yes
Several properties are located within known flood zones.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent
- Planning Overlay
- https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/map
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
The western and southern edges of the suburb border bushfire-prone areas.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 28.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3 days
The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 0.5 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Moderate
- Erosion Risk
- Yes
Historical Climate Events
Major flooding occurred in the Macleay River, impacting South West Rocks and surrounding areas. Many residents were evacuated.
SourceBushfires threatened the outskirts of South West Rocks, requiring residents to be prepared for evacuation.
SourceCoastal erosion impacted beaches around South West Rocks, requiring remediation efforts.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 6.5 | 7.0(+0.5) | 7.5(+1.0) |
| bushfire | 4.2 | 4.5(+0.3) | 4.9(+0.7) |
| heat | 6.8 | 7.3(+0.5) | 7.8(+1.0) |
| coastal | 5.7 | 6.1(+0.4) | 6.5(+0.8) |
By 2030, South West Rocks is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly flooding and heatwaves. Sea level rise will continue to exacerbate coastal erosion.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Improve Drainage Infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce the risk of flooding.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreImplement Bushfire Management Plans
Near-termDevelop and implement bushfire management plans to reduce the risk of bushfires impacting the community.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreProtect Coastal Ecosystems
Long-termProtect and restore coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves and dunes, to provide natural protection against coastal erosion.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreDevelop Heatwave Response Plans
ImmediateDevelop and implement heatwave response plans to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreRaise Awareness
Near-termEducate the community about climate risks and adaptation measures.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout South West Rocks's Climate Risk Profile
South West Rocks, located on the Mid North Coast of New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The area's low-lying topography and proximity to the ocean make it particularly vulnerable to flooding from heavy rainfall and rising sea levels. Bushfire risk is also present due to the surrounding bushland.
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a significant threat to public health, especially for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Coastal erosion is an ongoing concern, with the potential to damage infrastructure and property along the coastline.
Climate change projections indicate that these risks will continue to escalate in the coming decades. Increased rainfall intensity is expected to exacerbate flooding, while rising temperatures will lead to more severe heatwaves. Sea level rise will further increase the risk of coastal erosion and inundation.
Addressing these challenges requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to slowing down the rate of climate change. At the local level, measures such as improving drainage infrastructure, implementing bushfire management plans, and protecting coastal ecosystems can help to reduce the impacts of climate change.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW State Emergency Service · NSW Rural Fire Service · NSW Department of Planning and Environment · Kempsey Shire Council
Local Government Resources
Kempsey Shire Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in South West Rocks?
The main climate change risks in South West Rocks are flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. These risks are projected to increase in the coming decades.
How will sea level rise affect South West Rocks?
Sea level rise will increase the risk of coastal erosion and inundation, potentially damaging infrastructure and property along the coastline.
What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in South West Rocks?
Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.
Where can I find information about flood risks in South West Rocks?
You can find information about flood risks on the Kempsey Shire Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.
Is my property in South West Rocks at risk from bushfires?
If your property is located near bushland, it may be at risk from bushfires. Check the NSW Rural Fire Service website for information about bushfire prone areas and how to prepare your property.
What is the council doing to address climate change in South West Rocks?
Kempsey Shire Council is developing and implementing climate change adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on the community.
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