Climate Risk Profile: St Clair, NSW

St Clair, New South Wales· Penrith· 2759
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

St Clair is a suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase these risks in the future. Bushfire risk is moderate and coastal risk is low.

Overall Risk Score

5.5/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.0/10

St Clair experiences a high risk of heatwaves and extreme heat events, particularly during summer. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·High population density

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.0/10

St Clair faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and nearby waterways. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

St Clair is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.0/10

St Clair has a moderate bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions can elevate the risk during bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Wind

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase due to flood and heatwave risks.

Price Impact

Potential for decreased property values in flood-prone areas.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review bushfire risk and mitigation measures.
  • 4.Consider insurance costs and coverage.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
South Creek
Elevation Range
40-60m
Flood Zone
Low to Moderate

Some areas near South Creek are susceptible to flash flooding during heavy rainfall.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties bordering bushland are at higher risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Urban areas experience higher temperatures due to the urban heat island effect.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
50 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding in the Penrith region affected St Clair, causing property damage and disruptions.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions led to increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoke haze and elevated fire danger in St Clair.

Source
2020
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred due to heavy rainfall, impacting some residential areas.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.06.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire4.04.2(+0.2)4.4(+0.4)
heat7.07.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, St Clair is projected to experience an increase in flood and heatwave risks under a high emissions scenario. Bushfire risk may also slightly increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Upgrade drainage infrastructure and implement flood-proofing measures for properties in flood-prone areas.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Heatwave Preparedness

Immediate

Develop a heatwave management plan and provide cooling centers for vulnerable residents.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen Bushfire Resilience

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as vegetation management and fire breaks, in areas bordering bushland.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation strategies through community workshops and information campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About St Clair's Climate Risk Profile

St Clair, located in New South Wales, is subject to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also being a consideration. The suburb's location and climate patterns contribute to these vulnerabilities.

Flooding is a significant concern due to heavy rainfall events and the presence of nearby waterways. Climate change is projected to increase the intensity and frequency of these events, potentially leading to more widespread flooding in the area. Residents and property owners should be aware of the potential risks and take appropriate precautions.

Heatwaves are another major concern, particularly during the summer months. St Clair experiences high temperatures, and climate change is expected to exacerbate this issue, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves. This can pose a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Bushfire risk is moderate, with the potential for fires to occur during hot, dry conditions. While not as significant as flooding or heatwaves, it is still important to be aware of the risk and take appropriate precautions, especially during the bushfire season.

Coastal risks are minimal due to St Clair's inland location.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Penrith City Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in St Clair?

The main climate change risks in St Clair are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a moderate risk of bushfires.

How will climate change affect property values in St Clair?

Climate change may lead to decreased property values in flood-prone areas due to increased flood risk and insurance costs.

What is the council doing to address climate change in St Clair?

Penrith City Council has a climate strategy that includes measures to reduce emissions, improve resilience to climate impacts, and educate the community.

How can I prepare my home for a heatwave in St Clair?

You can prepare your home for a heatwave by installing insulation, using fans and air conditioning, and staying hydrated. It's also important to check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

What should I do during a flood in St Clair?

During a flood, you should move to higher ground, avoid driving through floodwaters, and follow the instructions of emergency services. It's also important to have an emergency kit prepared.

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