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Climate Risk Profile: Sussex Inlet, NSW

Sussex Inlet, New South Wales· Shoalhaven· 2540
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Sussex Inlet is a coastal town in New South Wales that faces several climate-related risks. These include flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. The risk scores for these hazards are projected to increase in the future due to climate change.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.1
Coastal
5.4

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.1/10

Sussex Inlet is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This can pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.6

2050

8.2

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Sussex Inlet is susceptible to flooding due to its low-lying coastal location and proximity to the inlet. Heavy rainfall and storm surges can lead to inundation of properties and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

5.4/10

Sussex Inlet faces coastal risks from sea level rise and erosion. The low-lying nature of the area makes it vulnerable to inundation and damage from storm surges.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.8

2050

6.3

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.2/10

The area surrounding Sussex Inlet has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of nearby bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

4.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Properties in low-lying areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
  • 3.Consider the potential impacts of sea level rise.
  • 4.Ensure adequate insurance coverage.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Sussex Inlet
Elevation Range
0-10 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal floodplain

The Shoalhaven River and its tributaries contribute to the flood risk in the area.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Check the NSW Rural Fire Service website for current fire danger ratings and warnings.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Elderly residents and those with pre-existing health conditions are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas at risk
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding occurred in the Shoalhaven region, impacting Sussex Inlet.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas near Sussex Inlet, requiring evacuations.

Source
2020
bushfireMajor

The Black Summer bushfires had a significant impact on the South Coast, including Sussex Inlet, with widespread smoke and some property damage.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in Sussex Inlet and surrounding areas.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.56.9(+0.4)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire4.24.4(+0.2)4.7(+0.5)
heat7.17.6(+0.5)8.6(+1.5)
coastal5.45.7(+0.3)6.2(+0.8)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Sussex Inlet is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heat risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to protect against flooding, such as levees and drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire management strategies, including hazard reduction burns and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal Management Strategy

Long-term

Develop a long-term coastal management strategy to address sea level rise and erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Sussex Inlet's Climate Risk Profile

Sussex Inlet, located on the South Coast of New South Wales, is a picturesque town known for its waterways and natural beauty. However, its coastal location also makes it vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Flooding is a significant concern for Sussex Inlet, with the potential for inundation from heavy rainfall, storm surges, and rising sea levels. The low-lying topography of the area exacerbates this risk, and future climate change scenarios project an increase in flood frequency and intensity.

Bushfire risk is also present in the surrounding areas, particularly during hot and dry periods. While not directly within a high-risk zone, the proximity to bushland means that Sussex Inlet needs to be prepared for potential bushfire threats.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in New South Wales, and Sussex Inlet is no exception. The increasing temperatures can pose health risks to vulnerable populations, especially during the summer months.

Coastal erosion and sea level rise are long-term threats to Sussex Inlet. The town's proximity to the coast makes it susceptible to erosion, and rising sea levels could lead to inundation of low-lying areas.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · Shoalhaven City Council

Local Government Resources

Shoalhaven City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Sussex Inlet?

The main climate change risks for Sussex Inlet are flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How is the Shoalhaven City Council addressing climate change?

The Shoalhaven City Council is developing and implementing strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. This includes investing in flood defenses, managing bushfire risk, and developing a coastal management strategy.

What can residents do to prepare for climate change impacts?

Residents can take steps to prepare for climate change impacts by checking flood maps, assessing bushfire risk, considering the potential impacts of sea level rise, and ensuring adequate insurance coverage.

Where can I find more information about climate change projections for Sussex Inlet?

More information about climate change projections for Sussex Inlet can be found on the CSIRO website and the NSW Department of Planning and Environment website.

What is the local council doing to protect the coastline from erosion?

The Shoalhaven City Council is actively monitoring coastal erosion and developing long-term coastal management strategies. These strategies may include beach nourishment, dune stabilization, and the construction of seawalls.

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