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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Tea Gardens, NSW

Tea Gardens, New South Wales· MidCoast· 2324
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Tea Gardens faces increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards due to climate change. Sea level rise and more intense rainfall events are key concerns. Residents should prepare for more frequent and severe extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
6.5

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

6.0/10

Tea Gardens is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This can pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Tea Gardens is susceptible to flooding from the Myall River and associated waterways, especially during heavy rainfall events and king tides. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

6.5/10

Tea Gardens is vulnerable to coastal erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. This can impact infrastructure, property, and natural ecosystems.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Thermal expansion of seawater
  • ·Melting glaciers and ice sheets

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.0/10

Tea Gardens has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of bushfire weather.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·More frequent heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to climate change risks.

Price Impact

Property values in vulnerable areas may be negatively impacted.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone areas.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to sea level rise.
  • 3.Consider the cost of insurance and potential for increased premiums.
  • 4.Inquire about council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Myall River
Elevation Range
0-10m
Flood Zone
Yes

Low-lying areas near the Myall River are particularly vulnerable to flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Areas bordering the bushland are designated as bushfire prone.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Tea Gardens.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
High
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Major flooding occurred in the Myall River, inundating low-lying areas of Tea Gardens.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires threatened Tea Gardens, with residents being evacuated.

Source
2017
stormModerate

Severe storm caused damage to property and infrastructure in Tea Gardens.

Source
2020
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred in Tea Gardens due to heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire4.04.3(+0.3)4.7(+0.7)
heat6.06.4(+0.4)6.8(+0.8)
coastal6.57.1(+0.6)7.8(+1.3)

By 2030, Tea Gardens is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with the most significant impacts from coastal hazards and flooding. Heatwaves and bushfire risk are also expected to increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Improve drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Construct Seawalls and Coastal Defenses

Long-term

Build seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Response Plan

Immediate

Implement a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Mitigation

Near-term

Implement bushfire risk mitigation measures, such as clearing vegetation around properties and conducting controlled burns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Raise Awareness and Education

Immediate

Educate the community about climate change risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Tea Gardens's Climate Risk Profile

Tea Gardens, located on the coast of New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb faces a range of environmental challenges, including rising sea levels, increased flooding risk, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a heightened risk of bushfires.

Sea level rise poses a significant threat to Tea Gardens, with potential for increased coastal erosion and inundation of low-lying areas. This can damage infrastructure, property, and natural ecosystems. More intense rainfall events are also expected to increase the risk of flooding, particularly in areas near the Myall River.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Bushfire risk is also increasing due to hotter, drier conditions and more frequent heatwaves.

Addressing these challenges requires a coordinated effort from all levels of government, as well as the community. This includes implementing adaptation measures to reduce the impacts of climate change, such as building seawalls, improving drainage systems, and developing heatwave response plans. It also includes reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the effects of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · MidCoast Council

Local Government Resources

MidCoast Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks facing Tea Gardens?

Tea Gardens faces increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards due to climate change. Sea level rise and more intense rainfall events are key concerns.

How will sea level rise affect Tea Gardens?

Sea level rise can lead to increased coastal erosion and inundation of low-lying areas, damaging infrastructure, property, and natural ecosystems.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Tea Gardens?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

How can I protect my property from bushfires in Tea Gardens?

Clear vegetation around your property, have a bushfire survival plan, and ensure your home is well-maintained.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Tea Gardens?

MidCoast Council is implementing a range of adaptation measures, such as upgrading drainage infrastructure and developing coastal management plans.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Tea Gardens?

You can find more information on the MidCoast Council website, the NSW Department of Planning and Environment website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

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