Climate Risk Profile: Terrey Hills, NSW
Terrey Hills faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, with coastal risks being minimal. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in terms of increased bushfire danger and more frequent flooding events. Residents should prepare for these potential impacts.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Terrey Hills experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Climate change
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
5.0
2050
5.5
flood Risk
Terrey Hills faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its topography and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding, particularly in low-lying areas.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
- ·Climate change
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.0
2050
7.5
coastal Risk
Terrey Hills has a very low coastal risk due to its distance from the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.
Primary Drivers
- ·Distance from coast
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
1.0
2050
1.0
bushfire Risk
Terrey Hills has a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by dense bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Hotter temperatures
- ·Strong winds
- ·Climate change
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.5
2050
8.0
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated bushfire and flood risks.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
- 3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand coverage.
- 4.Consider installing fire-resistant building materials.
- 5.Develop a bushfire survival plan.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Narrabeen Creek
- Elevation Range
- 80-220m
- Flood Zone
- Areas near Narrabeen Creek are susceptible to flooding.
Historical flood data indicates that properties near creek lines are most vulnerable.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Surrounded by Ku-ring-gai Chase National Park and other bushland reserves.
- Planning Overlay
- Bushfire Prone Land
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
The entire suburb is designated as a bushfire prone area.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 27.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 2 days
Heat stress events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 8 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Low
- Erosion Risk
- Low
Historical Climate Events
A bushfire impacted areas near Terrey Hills, causing property damage and evacuations.
SourceA bushfire near Terrey Hills required RFS intervention to prevent it from spreading to residential areas.
SourceHeavy rainfall caused flash flooding in low-lying areas of Terrey Hills, impacting some properties.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 6.5 | 6.8(+0.3) | 7.1(+0.6) |
| bushfire | 7.0 | 7.4(+0.4) | 7.8(+0.8) |
| heat | 4.5 | 4.7(+0.2) | 4.9(+0.4) |
| coastal | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
By 2030, Terrey Hills is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased bushfire risk and more frequent flooding events. Heatwaves are also expected to become more common.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Develop a Bushfire Survival Plan
ImmediateCreate a comprehensive bushfire survival plan that includes evacuation routes, emergency contacts, and a checklist of essential items to take with you. Practice the plan regularly with your family.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreImprove Home Bushfire Protection
Near-termInstall fire-resistant building materials, clear vegetation around your home, and maintain gutters and downpipes to prevent the accumulation of flammable debris. Consider installing a sprinkler system.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreInstall Rainwater Tanks
Near-termInstall rainwater tanks to capture and store rainwater for non-potable uses, such as gardening and toilet flushing. This can help reduce your reliance on mains water and conserve water during droughts.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreSupport Local Flood Mitigation Efforts
Long-termParticipate in community initiatives to improve flood mitigation, such as revegetation projects and the construction of drainage infrastructure. Advocate for increased investment in flood management by local government.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Terrey Hills's Climate Risk Profile
Terrey Hills, located in the Northern Beaches region of Sydney, is characterized by its leafy environment and proximity to significant bushland areas. This unique setting contributes to both its appeal and its vulnerability to climate-related hazards.
The primary concerns for Terrey Hills are bushfire and flooding. The suburb's location adjacent to dense bushland increases its susceptibility to bushfires, especially during dry and windy conditions. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfire weather, posing a greater threat to properties and residents.
Flooding is another significant risk, with intense rainfall events capable of causing flash flooding in low-lying areas. The increasing intensity of rainfall due to climate change is expected to worsen this risk, potentially impacting infrastructure and homes.
While heatwaves pose a moderate threat, the suburb's relatively high elevation and tree cover offer some mitigation. However, vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions, may still be at risk during extreme heat events.
Coastal risks are minimal due to Terrey Hills' distance from the coastline. However, the broader region may experience indirect impacts from coastal erosion and sea level rise, such as disruptions to transportation and supply chains.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · Northern Beaches Council
Local Government Resources
Northern Beaches Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Terrey Hills?
The main climate change risks for Terrey Hills are increased bushfire risk, more frequent and intense flooding events, and more frequent heatwaves. Sea level rise is not a significant concern due to the suburb's distance from the coast.
How can I prepare my home for bushfires in Terrey Hills?
You can prepare your home for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, installing fire-resistant building materials, maintaining gutters and downpipes, and developing a bushfire survival plan.
What should I do during a flood in Terrey Hills?
During a flood, stay informed about the situation by monitoring weather forecasts and emergency alerts. If your property is at risk of flooding, evacuate to a safe location. Avoid driving or walking through floodwaters.
How will climate change affect property values in Terrey Hills?
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to the increased risk of bushfires and flooding. It is important to assess the vulnerability of your property and take steps to mitigate these risks.
What is the local council doing to address climate change in Terrey Hills?
The Northern Beaches Council has a climate change strategy that outlines its plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. The council is also working to improve flood management and bushfire preparedness.
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