Climate Risk Profile: Terrey Hills, NSW

Terrey Hills, New South Wales· UNKNOWN· 2084
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Terrey Hills faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, with coastal risks being minimal. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in terms of increased bushfire danger and more frequent flooding events. Residents should prepare for these potential impacts.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.5
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

4.5/10

Terrey Hills experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Terrey Hills faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its topography and proximity to waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding, particularly in low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Terrey Hills has a very low coastal risk due to its distance from the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

7.0/10

Terrey Hills has a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by dense bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Hotter temperatures
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated bushfire and flood risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
  • 3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand coverage.
  • 4.Consider installing fire-resistant building materials.
  • 5.Develop a bushfire survival plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Narrabeen Creek
Elevation Range
80-220m
Flood Zone
Areas near Narrabeen Creek are susceptible to flooding.

Historical flood data indicates that properties near creek lines are most vulnerable.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Surrounded by Ku-ring-gai Chase National Park and other bushland reserves.
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The entire suburb is designated as a bushfire prone area.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

Heat stress events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
8 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

1994
bushfireModerate

A bushfire impacted areas near Terrey Hills, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2007
stormModerate

A severe storm caused flash flooding and property damage in Terrey Hills.

Source
2013
bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Terrey Hills required RFS intervention to prevent it from spreading to residential areas.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in low-lying areas of Terrey Hills, impacting some properties.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.56.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire7.07.4(+0.4)7.8(+0.8)
heat4.54.7(+0.2)4.9(+0.4)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Terrey Hills is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased bushfire risk and more frequent flooding events. Heatwaves are also expected to become more common.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a Bushfire Survival Plan

Immediate

Create a comprehensive bushfire survival plan that includes evacuation routes, emergency contacts, and a checklist of essential items to take with you. Practice the plan regularly with your family.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve Home Bushfire Protection

Near-term

Install fire-resistant building materials, clear vegetation around your home, and maintain gutters and downpipes to prevent the accumulation of flammable debris. Consider installing a sprinkler system.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Install Rainwater Tanks

Near-term

Install rainwater tanks to capture and store rainwater for non-potable uses, such as gardening and toilet flushing. This can help reduce your reliance on mains water and conserve water during droughts.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Support Local Flood Mitigation Efforts

Long-term

Participate in community initiatives to improve flood mitigation, such as revegetation projects and the construction of drainage infrastructure. Advocate for increased investment in flood management by local government.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Terrey Hills's Climate Risk Profile

Terrey Hills, located in the Northern Beaches region of Sydney, is characterized by its leafy environment and proximity to significant bushland areas. This unique setting contributes to both its appeal and its vulnerability to climate-related hazards.

The primary concerns for Terrey Hills are bushfire and flooding. The suburb's location adjacent to dense bushland increases its susceptibility to bushfires, especially during dry and windy conditions. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfire weather, posing a greater threat to properties and residents.

Flooding is another significant risk, with intense rainfall events capable of causing flash flooding in low-lying areas. The increasing intensity of rainfall due to climate change is expected to worsen this risk, potentially impacting infrastructure and homes.

While heatwaves pose a moderate threat, the suburb's relatively high elevation and tree cover offer some mitigation. However, vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions, may still be at risk during extreme heat events.

Coastal risks are minimal due to Terrey Hills' distance from the coastline. However, the broader region may experience indirect impacts from coastal erosion and sea level rise, such as disruptions to transportation and supply chains.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · Northern Beaches Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Terrey Hills?

The main climate change risks for Terrey Hills are increased bushfire risk, more frequent and intense flooding events, and more frequent heatwaves. Sea level rise is not a significant concern due to the suburb's distance from the coast.

How can I prepare my home for bushfires in Terrey Hills?

You can prepare your home for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, installing fire-resistant building materials, maintaining gutters and downpipes, and developing a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a flood in Terrey Hills?

During a flood, stay informed about the situation by monitoring weather forecasts and emergency alerts. If your property is at risk of flooding, evacuate to a safe location. Avoid driving or walking through floodwaters.

How will climate change affect property values in Terrey Hills?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to the increased risk of bushfires and flooding. It is important to assess the vulnerability of your property and take steps to mitigate these risks.

What is the local council doing to address climate change in Terrey Hills?

The Northern Beaches Council has a climate change strategy that outlines its plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. The council is also working to improve flood management and bushfire preparedness.

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