Climate Risk in Tomakin NSW
Tomakin is a coastal suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly through increased rainfall intensity, rising temperatures, and sea level rise. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Tomakin experiences moderate heat risk. Average temperatures are expected to rise, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
5.0
2050
5.5
flood Risk
Tomakin faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Tomakin River and coastal areas. Increased rainfall intensity and sea level rise are expected to exacerbate this risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Coastal proximity
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.0
2050
7.5
coastal Risk
Tomakin faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including erosion and inundation, due to its coastal location. Sea level rise is expected to worsen these risks.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Coastal erosion
- ·Storm surges
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
5.5
2050
6.0
bushfire Risk
Tomakin is located in a bushfire-prone area. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.
Primary Drivers
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Higher temperatures
- ·Proximity to bushland
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.5
2050
8.0
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums are likely to increase in the future due to the increasing risk of extreme weather events.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value as climate risks become more apparent.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to coastal erosion and inundation.
- 3.Inquire about past flood or bushfire events.
- 4.Obtain a building inspection to identify potential climate-related risks.
- 5.Consider the cost of insurance and potential increases in the future.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Tomakin River
- Elevation Range
- 0-20m
- Flood Zone
- Coastal floodplain
Several properties in low-lying areas near the Tomakin River have experienced flooding in the past. The council maintains flood maps and provides guidance on flood preparedness.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent to bushland reserves
- Planning Overlay
- Bushfire prone area
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
Tomakin is designated as a bushfire-prone area due to its proximity to extensive bushland. Residents are advised to maintain firebreaks and have a bushfire survival plan.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 27.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 2 days
Tomakin experiences several days above 30°C during summer. Heatwaves can pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 0.5 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Moderate exposure
- Erosion Risk
- Moderate risk
Historical Climate Events
Heavy rainfall caused the Tomakin River to flood, inundating low-lying areas and disrupting traffic.
SourceA bushfire near Tomakin threatened properties and required the evacuation of some residents.
SourceThe Black Summer bushfires impacted the region surrounding Tomakin, causing significant smoke haze and some property damage.
SourceHeavy rainfall led to flooding in low-lying areas of Tomakin, impacting some homes and businesses.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 6.5 | 6.9(+0.4) | 7.5(+1.0) |
| bushfire | 7.0 | 7.5(+0.5) | 8.5(+1.5) |
| heat | 4.5 | 4.7(+0.2) | 5.3(+0.8) |
| coastal | 5.0 | 5.3(+0.3) | 5.7(+0.7) |
Under a moderate emissions scenario, Tomakin is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk by 2030, with notable increases in flood and bushfire risk.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Develop a household emergency plan
ImmediateCreate a plan that outlines what to do in the event of a flood, bushfire, or other emergency. Include evacuation routes, emergency contacts, and a list of essential items to take with you.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreImprove property resilience to flooding
Near-termConsider raising the floor level of your home, installing flood barriers, and improving drainage to reduce the risk of flood damage.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreReduce bushfire risk around your home
Near-termClear vegetation around your home, maintain firebreaks, and install a sprinkler system to reduce the risk of bushfire damage.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreInstall energy-efficient appliances and insulation
Long-termReduce your energy consumption and lower your carbon footprint by installing energy-efficient appliances and improving insulation in your home.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreSupport local climate action initiatives
Long-termParticipate in community efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Tomakin's Climate Risk Profile
Tomakin, located on the south coast of New South Wales, is a beautiful coastal community known for its beaches and natural environment. However, like many coastal areas, Tomakin is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
The primary risks facing Tomakin include flooding from the Tomakin River and coastal inundation, increased bushfire risk due to drier conditions, and more frequent and intense heatwaves. Sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal properties and infrastructure.
Climate projections indicate that these risks will worsen in the coming decades. Increased rainfall intensity will lead to more frequent and severe flooding events. Rising temperatures and drier conditions will increase the likelihood of bushfires. Sea level rise will exacerbate coastal erosion and inundation.
Residents and property owners in Tomakin should take steps to prepare for these changes. This includes understanding their individual risk, implementing adaptation measures to protect their properties, and staying informed about emergency warnings and community preparedness initiatives.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Eurobodalla Shire Council
Local Government Resources
Eurobodalla Shire Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Tomakin?
Tomakin faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion, all of which are expected to worsen with climate change.
How will sea level rise affect Tomakin?
Sea level rise will increase the risk of coastal erosion and inundation, potentially impacting properties and infrastructure near the coast.
What can I do to prepare for bushfires in Tomakin?
Clear vegetation around your home, maintain firebreaks, and have a bushfire survival plan. Stay informed about fire danger ratings and warnings.
Where can I find information about flood risks in Tomakin?
The Eurobodalla Shire Council provides flood maps and information on flood preparedness on their website.
How can I reduce my carbon footprint in Tomakin?
Install energy-efficient appliances, use public transport or cycle, and support local climate action initiatives.
Is it safe to buy property in Tomakin given the climate risks?
It is important to be aware of the climate risks and take them into account when making a property purchase. Consider the property's location, potential for flooding or bushfire damage, and the cost of insurance.
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