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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Toukley, NSW

Toukley, New South Wales· Central Coast· 2263
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Toukley is a suburb on the Central Coast of NSW that faces moderate risks from climate change. The primary concerns are increased flooding, heatwaves, bushfire risk, and coastal hazards due to sea level rise.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.1
Coastal
5.4

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.1/10

Toukley is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.6

2050

8.1

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Toukley faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

5.4/10

Toukley faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to sea level rise and storm surges. This could lead to erosion and inundation of low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.9

2050

6.4

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.2/10

Toukley has a moderate bushfire risk due to nearby bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise.
  • 4.Review insurance options and costs.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Tuggerah Lake
Elevation Range
0-10m
Flood Zone
Yes

Several properties in Toukley are located in identified flood zones.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Parts of Toukley are designated as bushfire prone areas.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
29°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Toukley experiences several days above 35°C each summer.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2007
floodModerate

Major flooding occurred in the Central Coast region, impacting Toukley and surrounding areas.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas near Toukley, requiring evacuations and property protection.

Source
2017
stormModerate

Severe storms caused damage to property and infrastructure in Toukley.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Record-breaking heatwave conditions affected Toukley and the Central Coast.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.56.9(+0.4)7.3(+0.8)
bushfire4.24.5(+0.3)4.9(+0.7)
heat7.17.7(+0.6)8.6(+1.5)
coastal5.45.6(+0.2)6.0(+0.6)

By 2030, Toukley is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity, as well as increased flood risk due to more intense rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Mitigation

Immediate

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as fuel reduction and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Develop a heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable populations.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal Protection

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and erosion.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Near-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Toukley's Climate Risk Profile

Toukley, located on the Central Coast of New South Wales, is a coastal suburb that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The region is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased rainfall intensity leading to flooding, a higher risk of bushfires, and coastal erosion due to sea level rise.

The risk of flooding is a significant concern for Toukley, given its low-lying areas and proximity to Tuggerah Lake. Climate change is projected to increase rainfall intensity, which could overwhelm existing drainage infrastructure and lead to more frequent and severe flooding events. Residents and businesses should be prepared for potential disruptions and damages.

Bushfire risk is also increasing in Toukley due to hotter, drier conditions. The surrounding bushland poses a threat, and proactive measures are needed to reduce fuel loads and improve community preparedness. Homeowners should maintain their properties and be aware of bushfire safety guidelines.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations. It is important to stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments during extreme heat, and check on elderly neighbors and relatives. The local council is working on strategies to mitigate the urban heat island effect.

Coastal erosion and inundation are also concerns for Toukley due to sea level rise. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable, and long-term planning is needed to protect coastal assets and infrastructure. This includes considering managed retreat and implementing coastal protection measures.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Central Coast Council · NSW Department of Planning and Environment

Local Government Resources

Central Coast Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Toukley?

Toukley faces increased risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards due to climate change.

How is the Central Coast Council addressing climate change?

The Central Coast Council is developing and implementing strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change, including improving drainage infrastructure and promoting community awareness.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Toukley?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors and relatives during heatwaves.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Toukley?

You can find flood maps and information on the Central Coast Council website.

How can I protect my property from bushfires in Toukley?

Maintain your property, reduce fuel loads, and be aware of bushfire safety guidelines from the NSW Rural Fire Service.

What is the council doing to protect the coastline from erosion?

The council is investigating and implementing coastal protection measures to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and erosion.

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