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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk in Vincentia, New South Wales

Vincentia, New South Wales· Shoalhaven· 2540
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Vincentia is a coastal suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should take steps to prepare for these potential impacts.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.5
Coastal
5.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

4.5/10

Vincentia experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Vincentia faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Jervis Bay and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

5.0/10

Vincentia faces a moderate coastal risk due to sea level rise and potential for coastal erosion. Low-lying areas are particularly vulnerable to inundation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

7.0/10

Vincentia has a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by bushland. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to increased climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's elevation and proximity to bushland.
  • 3.Obtain a building inspection report.
  • 4.Review insurance options and costs.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Jervis Bay
Elevation Range
0-30m
Flood Zone
Coastal and Riverine

Several properties in low-lying areas near the coast have experienced flooding in past events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The western and southern edges of Vincentia border significant bushland areas.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
2 days

Average January maximum temperatures are expected to increase in the coming decades.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas near the coast are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Moderate erosion risk along some beach areas.

Historical Climate Events

2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas near Vincentia, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2016
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Vincentia, affecting homes and businesses.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

The Currowan bushfire significantly impacted the Shoalhaven region, including areas near Vincentia, causing widespread damage and evacuations.

Source
2020
stormModerate

Severe storms caused damage to property and infrastructure in Vincentia.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire7.07.3(+0.3)7.7(+0.7)
heat4.54.9(+0.4)5.3(+0.8)
coastal5.05.6(+0.6)6.3(+1.3)

By 2030, Vincentia is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in coastal flooding and heatwave frequency.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater drainage infrastructure to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire hazard reduction

Immediate

Implement regular bushfire hazard reduction programs to reduce fuel loads near residential areas.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal protection measures

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and beach nourishment, to mitigate coastal erosion and inundation.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Community education programs

Near-term

Conduct community education programs to raise awareness of climate risks and promote preparedness measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Vincentia's Climate Risk Profile

Vincentia, located on the shores of Jervis Bay, is a beautiful coastal community. However, its location also makes it vulnerable to a range of climate-related hazards. The primary concerns for Vincentia include increased flooding due to more intense rainfall and sea level rise, a heightened risk of bushfires due to drier conditions and surrounding bushland, and more frequent and severe heatwaves.

The risk of flooding is particularly concerning for low-lying areas of Vincentia. Sea level rise will increase the frequency and severity of coastal inundation, while more intense rainfall events will lead to increased stormwater flooding. The combination of these factors could have significant impacts on property and infrastructure.

The bushfire risk in Vincentia is also a major concern. The suburb is surrounded by bushland, which provides ample fuel for fires. Drier conditions and stronger winds, driven by climate change, will increase the likelihood of bushfires and make them more difficult to control.

Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and severe in Vincentia. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. It can also strain infrastructure, such as the electricity grid.

Coastal erosion is another potential threat to Vincentia. Sea level rise and increased storm intensity can lead to erosion of beaches and foreshores, threatening property and infrastructure along the coast.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · Shoalhaven City Council

Local Government Resources

Shoalhaven City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Vincentia?

The main climate change risks for Vincentia include increased flooding, bushfire risk, heatwaves, and coastal erosion.

How will sea level rise affect Vincentia?

Sea level rise will increase the frequency and severity of coastal inundation, particularly in low-lying areas of Vincentia.

What can I do to prepare for bushfires in Vincentia?

You can prepare for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, having a bushfire survival plan, and staying informed about fire danger ratings.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Vincentia?

You can find information about flood risks on the Shoalhaven City Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

Are there any community groups working on climate change in Vincentia?

Yes, there are several community groups in the Shoalhaven region that are working on climate change issues. Contact Shoalhaven City Council for more information.

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