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Climate Risk Assessment for Dalby, QLD

Dalby, Queensland· UNKNOWN
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Dalby faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in relation to heat and flooding. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.0/10

Dalby experiences high temperatures during summer, with heatwaves becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Dalby faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location near waterways and relatively flat terrain. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Dalby is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Projections (RCP2.6)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.2/10

The bushfire risk in Dalby is moderate, with surrounding grasslands and bushland posing a threat during dry periods and high winds.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High winds
  • ·Arson

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

4.5

2050

4.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and heatwave risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review bushfire risk management plan.
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency upgrades.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Myall Creek
Elevation Range
300-350m
Flood Zone
Areas near Myall Creek are prone to flooding.

Historical flood data indicates that areas near Myall Creek are most vulnerable.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 5km of town boundary
Planning Overlay
Refer to QFES bushfire maps
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The areas to the west and south of Dalby have a higher bushfire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
33°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

January and February are the hottest months, with temperatures frequently exceeding 35°C.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
300 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodMajor

Significant flooding impacted Dalby, causing widespread damage to homes and businesses.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Dalby, with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several days.

Source
2018
droughtModerate

Dalby experienced a prolonged drought, impacting agricultural production and water supplies.

Source
2020
bushfireMinor

Bushfires occurred in the surrounding areas, posing a threat to Dalby.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.56.8(+0.3)7.2(+0.7)
bushfire4.24.3(+0.1)4.4(+0.2)
heat7.07.6(+0.6)8.5(+1.5)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Dalby is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased heatwave intensity and flood risk.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Improve bushfire preparedness through community education, hazard reduction burns, and upgrades to firefighting equipment.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Implement water conservation measures to ensure water security during droughts, such as water restrictions and incentives for water-efficient appliances.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Dalby's Climate Risk Profile

Dalby, located in the Darling Downs region of Queensland, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to its proximity to waterways, and increasing heatwave intensity during the summer months.

Flooding events have historically impacted Dalby, and climate change projections suggest an increase in rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe floods. The local council is responsible for managing flood risks and providing information to residents.

Bushfire risk is also a consideration, particularly during dry periods when grasslands and bushland surrounding the town become highly flammable. Residents should maintain their properties and be aware of fire danger ratings.

Heatwaves are a significant concern, with Dalby experiencing high temperatures during summer. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

While Dalby is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, could indirectly affect the town.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · QFES · Western Downs Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Western Downs Regional Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Dalby?

The main climate change risks in Dalby are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a moderate risk of bushfires.

How is the local council preparing for climate change?

The Western Downs Regional Council is developing strategies to mitigate flood risks, manage water resources, and enhance community resilience to extreme weather events.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Dalby?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Consider installing air conditioning or visiting a cooling center.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Dalby?

You can find information about flood risks on the Western Downs Regional Council website and the Queensland Government's flood mapping portal.

How can I protect my property from bushfires in Dalby?

Maintain your property by clearing vegetation, installing firebreaks, and having a bushfire survival plan. Monitor fire danger ratings and follow the advice of the Queensland Fire and Emergency Services.

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