ClimateNest
ClimateNest
PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk Profile: Kenilworth, QLD

Kenilworth, Queensland· Sunshine Coast· 4574
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Kenilworth faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase in the future. The suburb is not exposed to coastal hazards. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.2/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.8
Heat
5.3
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

5.3/10

Kenilworth is expected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. Higher average temperatures and more extreme heat days can impact human health, infrastructure, and agricultural productivity.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.8

2050

6.3

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Kenilworth faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location near the Mary River and associated tributaries. Heavy rainfall events can lead to riverine flooding, impacting low-lying areas and properties close to waterways.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
  • ·Aging infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Kenilworth is located inland and is not directly exposed to coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion. The risk from coastal hazards is considered negligible.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.8/10

The risk of bushfires in Kenilworth is moderate, given the surrounding bushland and forested areas. Dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of fire ignition and spread, posing a threat to properties and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load
  • ·More frequent heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.3

2050

5.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risks of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of heatwaves on property value and comfort.
  • 4.Review insurance coverage for flood and fire damage.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Mary River
Elevation Range
50-150m
Flood Zone
Areas adjacent to the Mary River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood data indicates that Kenilworth has experienced several significant flood events in the past, highlighting the ongoing risk.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Immediately adjacent to bushland areas.
Planning Overlay
Qld Fire and Emergency Services Bushfire Prone Area Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area's vegetation type and topography contribute to the bushfire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase significantly in the coming decades.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
35 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable due to inland location.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable due to inland location.

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the Mary River catchment, impacting Kenilworth and surrounding areas. Several properties were inundated, and roads were closed.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires threatened Kenilworth, with several fire outbreaks in the surrounding bushland. Emergency services issued warnings and residents were advised to prepare for evacuation.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

Kenilworth experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 35°C for several consecutive days. This put strain on local infrastructure and caused heat-related illnesses.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused the Mary River to flood, impacting low-lying areas in Kenilworth. Roads were closed and some properties were inundated.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire4.85.3(+0.5)5.8(+1.0)
heat5.35.8(+0.5)6.3(+1.0)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Kenilworth is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, driven primarily by increases in flood, bushfire, and heatwave risks. Rainfall intensity is expected to increase, leading to more frequent and severe flooding events. Drier conditions and higher temperatures will exacerbate bushfire risk, while heatwaves will become more common and intense.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure improvements to mitigate flood risk, such as levees, drainage upgrades, and flood-proofing of buildings.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as vegetation management, fire breaks, and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Response Plan

Immediate

Create a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations, including establishing cooling centers and providing public health advice.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during periods of drought and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen Emergency Response Capacity

Immediate

Ensure that emergency services have the resources and training necessary to respond effectively to climate-related disasters.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Kenilworth's Climate Risk Profile

Kenilworth, located in the Sunshine Coast region of Queensland, is susceptible to several climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to its proximity to the Mary River, bushfires due to the surrounding bushland, and increasing heatwave frequency and intensity.

The risk of flooding is a significant concern for Kenilworth. Heavy rainfall events can cause the Mary River to overflow, inundating low-lying areas and impacting properties. Climate change is expected to exacerbate this risk, with more intense rainfall events projected for the region.

Bushfires also pose a threat to Kenilworth, particularly during dry periods. The surrounding bushland provides ample fuel for fires, and strong winds can quickly spread flames towards residential areas. Warmer and drier conditions associated with climate change are expected to increase the frequency and severity of bushfires.

Heatwaves are another growing concern for Kenilworth. As global temperatures rise, the suburb is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, which can have adverse effects on human health, infrastructure, and agriculture. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions, are particularly at risk.

While Kenilworth is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader Sunshine Coast region is vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. These coastal changes could indirectly impact Kenilworth through economic disruptions and displacement of populations.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Queensland Fire and Emergency Services · Sunshine Coast Council

Local Government Resources

Sunshine Coast Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Kenilworth?

The main climate change risks for Kenilworth are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Kenilworth?

Climate change could potentially impact property values in Kenilworth, particularly in flood-prone areas. Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

What can I do to prepare for flooding in Kenilworth?

To prepare for flooding in Kenilworth, you should check flood maps, assess your property's flood risk, and implement flood-proofing measures. It is also important to have an emergency plan and be aware of evacuation routes.

How can I protect my home from bushfires in Kenilworth?

To protect your home from bushfires in Kenilworth, you should clear vegetation around your property, maintain fire breaks, and install fire-resistant building materials. It is also important to have a bushfire survival plan.

What are the health risks associated with heatwaves in Kenilworth?

Heatwaves can cause heatstroke, dehydration, and other heat-related illnesses. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions, are particularly at risk. It is important to stay hydrated, stay cool, and avoid strenuous activity during heatwaves.

Where can I find more information about climate change in the Sunshine Coast region?

You can find more information about climate change in the Sunshine Coast region on the Sunshine Coast Council website and the Queensland Government website.

Get a Property-Specific Report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Kenilworth, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Kenilworth →

Analyse Your Property Now

Enter your address below for an instant climate risk assessment covering flood, bushfire, and sea level rise and more.

Free instant preview · Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only