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Climate Risk Assessment for Manly, QLD

Manly, Queensland· Brisbane City· 4179
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Manly, Queensland, faces increasing risks from climate change, particularly related to flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Sea level rise and more intense storms threaten coastal infrastructure and property. Residents should prepare for more frequent and severe extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.8/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
6.7

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.0/10

Manly experiences hot summers, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising temperatures
  • ·Increased humidity
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Manly is susceptible to flooding from heavy rainfall and storm surges, particularly in low-lying areas near the coast. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

6.7/10

As a coastal suburb, Manly is vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. Climate change is expected to accelerate these processes, threatening infrastructure, property, and natural ecosystems.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.2

2050

7.7

Data source

bushfire Risk

3.0/10

Bushfire risk in Manly is relatively low due to its coastal location and limited vegetation. However, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the risk, particularly in areas bordering parkland.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry conditions
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Proximity to vegetation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the rising risk of flooding and coastal damage.

Price Impact

Properties in low-lying areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood risk.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's elevation and drainage.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise on the property.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Moreton Bay
Elevation Range
0-10 meters
Flood Zone
Coastal and riverine flood zones

Manly has experienced several significant flood events in the past, highlighting its vulnerability to flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Approximately 5 km to Tingalpa Creek Reserve
Planning Overlay
Not significantly overlaid
Bushfire Prone Area
No

While not a high-risk area, residents should still be aware of bushfire safety during dry periods.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves can pose a significant risk to vulnerable populations in Manly.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate to high exposure
Erosion Risk
Moderate risk

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodMajor

The 2011 Brisbane floods caused significant inundation in Manly, affecting homes and businesses.

Source
2013
stormModerate

A severe storm caused damage to property and infrastructure in Manly.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

Manly experienced a prolonged heatwave, with temperatures exceeding 35°C for several days.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.57.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire3.03.2(+0.2)3.4(+0.4)
heat7.07.7(+0.7)8.2(+1.2)
coastal6.77.3(+0.6)8.1(+1.4)

By 2030, Manly is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased coastal erosion, and a higher risk of flooding due to rising sea levels and more extreme rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Immediate

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave preparedness plan

Near-term

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement coastal protection measures

Near-term

Construct seawalls and other coastal defenses to protect against erosion and sea level rise.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Raise awareness about climate risks

Long-term

Educate residents about the risks of climate change and how to prepare for extreme weather events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Manly's Climate Risk Profile

Manly, a coastal suburb of Brisbane, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding from heavy rainfall and storm surges, exacerbated by sea level rise. The suburb's low-lying areas are particularly susceptible, and the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events are projected to increase.

Heatwaves are another significant concern, with rising temperatures posing a threat to public health, especially for vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can further amplify these risks, making it essential to implement strategies to mitigate heat exposure.

Coastal erosion and inundation are also major threats, as sea level rise and more intense storms erode shorelines and damage coastal infrastructure. Protecting beaches and foreshores is crucial for maintaining the suburb's character and economy.

Addressing these challenges requires a coordinated effort involving local government, residents, and businesses. Adaptation measures, such as improved drainage systems, heatwave preparedness plans, and coastal protection strategies, are essential for building resilience to climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Queensland Emergency Services · Brisbane City Council

Local Government Resources

Brisbane City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Manly?

The main risks are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal erosion, all of which are expected to worsen with climate change.

How can I prepare for a flood in Manly?

Stay informed about weather warnings, have an evacuation plan, and protect your property by raising valuables and sealing off low-lying areas.

What should I do during a heatwave in Manly?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Is my property at risk from sea level rise in Manly?

Properties in low-lying coastal areas are at higher risk. Check flood maps and consult with a coastal engineer to assess your property's vulnerability.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Manly?

The Brisbane City Council is implementing various strategies, including upgrading drainage infrastructure, developing heatwave preparedness plans, and implementing coastal protection measures.

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