Climate Risk in Tully, QLD

Tully, Queensland· Cassowary Coast· 4854
High Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Tully faces significant climate risks, particularly from flooding and coastal hazards. Rising temperatures and increased rainfall intensity are expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

7.2/10
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
8.5
Bushfire
4.5
Heat
7.0
Coastal
9.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

7.0/10

Tully experiences high average temperatures and humidity, making it vulnerable to heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves, posing a significant risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
  • ·Higher humidity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.4

2050

7.8

Data source

flood Risk

8.5/10

Tully is highly susceptible to flooding due to its location in a high rainfall area and proximity to the Tully River. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Riverine flooding

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.8

2050

9.2

Data source

coastal Risk

9.0/10

Tully is at high risk from coastal hazards due to its proximity to the coast and low-lying areas. Sea level rise and increased storm surge will exacerbate coastal erosion and inundation, threatening infrastructure and communities.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

9.3

2050

9.6

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.5/10

Bushfire risk in Tully is moderate. While not immediately surrounded by dense bushland, the risk can increase during prolonged dry periods and high winds. Climate change is projected to lengthen the fire season and increase fire intensity.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Longer fire season

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.8

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the high risk of flooding and coastal hazards.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to bushfires.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise.
  • 4.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Tully River
Elevation Range
5-20 meters
Flood Zone
Areas adjacent to the Tully River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood events have caused significant damage in Tully, highlighting the need for improved flood mitigation measures.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 5km of significant bushland areas.
Planning Overlay
Refer to the Queensland Bushfire Prone Area Map.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain fire breaks and be prepared for potential bushfire threats.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

High humidity levels exacerbate the impact of heatwaves in Tully.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying coastal areas are vulnerable to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Coastal erosion is an ongoing issue in the region.

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodMajor

Severe flooding occurred in Tully following Cyclone Yasi, causing widespread damage to homes and businesses.

Source
2019
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in Tully, inundating roads and properties.

Source
2023
stormModerate

A severe storm caused damage to trees and powerlines in Tully.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood8.58.9(+0.4)9.5(+1.0)
bushfire4.54.6(+0.1)4.9(+0.4)
heat7.07.2(+0.2)7.6(+0.6)
coastal9.09.5(+0.5)10.5(+1.5)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Tully is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with flooding and coastal hazards posing the greatest threats.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Immediate

Invest in flood levees, drainage improvements, and other infrastructure to protect homes and businesses from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Strengthen Coastal Protection

Near-term

Implement coastal protection measures, such as sea walls and beach nourishment, to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as controlled burns and vegetation management, to reduce the risk of bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Response Plan

Immediate

Develop a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including providing cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Tully's Climate Risk Profile

Tully, located in the Cassowary Coast region of Queensland, is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The region's tropical climate and coastal location make it susceptible to a range of hazards, including flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion.

Flooding is a major concern for Tully, with the Tully River posing a significant risk. Climate change is projected to increase rainfall intensity, leading to more frequent and severe flooding events. This can inundate homes, businesses, and infrastructure, causing significant damage and disruption.

Bushfire risk is also present, particularly during dry periods. Rising temperatures and longer fire seasons are expected to increase the likelihood and intensity of bushfires, threatening communities and ecosystems.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses. The combination of high temperatures and humidity can create dangerous conditions, leading to heat stress and other health problems.

Coastal erosion and inundation are also significant threats, with sea level rise and increased storm surge expected to exacerbate these hazards. This can damage coastal infrastructure, erode beaches, and inundate low-lying areas, displacing communities and damaging ecosystems.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Queensland Fire and Emergency Services · Cassowary Coast Regional Council

Local Government Resources

Cassowary Coast Regional Council

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Tully?

The main climate change risks in Tully are flooding, coastal erosion, heatwaves and bushfires. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to rising temperatures, sea level rise, and changes in rainfall patterns.

How will climate change affect property values in Tully?

Properties in high-risk areas, such as those prone to flooding or coastal erosion, may experience a decrease in value. It is important to consider climate change risks when buying or selling property in Tully.

What can I do to protect my home from flooding in Tully?

There are several things you can do to protect your home from flooding, such as raising the foundation, installing flood barriers, and improving drainage. Contact the Cassowary Coast Regional Council for more information.

How can I prepare for a heatwave in Tully?

To prepare for a heatwave, stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and seek out air-conditioned environments. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Tully?

You can find more information about climate change in Tully from the Cassowary Coast Regional Council, the Queensland Government, and the CSIRO.

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