Climate Risk Assessment for Burnie, TAS
Burnie faces a moderate climate risk, primarily driven by coastal hazards and increasing heat. Sea level rise and storm surges pose a significant threat to coastal areas, while rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves could impact public health and infrastructure. Proactive adaptation measures are essential to mitigate these risks.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Burnie experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected in the future. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.
Primary Drivers
- ·Global warming
- ·Urban heat island effect
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
5.5
2050
6.0
flood Risk
Burnie faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its coastal location and proximity to rivers. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Urban development
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.5
2050
7.0
coastal Risk
Burnie faces a high coastal risk due to sea level rise and storm surges. Coastal erosion and inundation are likely to increase in the coming decades, impacting infrastructure and coastal communities.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Storm surge
- ·Coastal erosion
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.5
2050
8.0
bushfire Risk
Burnie has a relatively low bushfire risk compared to other regions in Tasmania, but some areas near bushland are still vulnerable, especially during dry periods.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·Wind
- ·Ignition sources
Projections (RCP4.5)
2030
4.2
2050
4.5
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Premiums may increase in high-risk coastal areas.
Price Impact
Properties in vulnerable coastal zones may experience price stagnation or decline.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and coastal erosion risk assessments.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to sea level rise and storm surges.
- 3.Inquire about insurance coverage and potential premium increases.
- 4.Consider energy efficiency and water conservation measures.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Emu River
- Elevation Range
- 0-100m
- Flood Zone
- Coastal and riverine floodplains
Burnie's low-lying coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to inundation during storm surges and heavy rainfall events.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Variable, some areas adjacent to bushland
- Planning Overlay
- Tasmanian Fire Service Bushfire Prone Areas Map
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
While not as high-risk as other regions, vigilance is required in areas near bushland, especially during dry periods.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 22.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 1 days
Average temperatures are expected to increase, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 0.5 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- High
- Erosion Risk
- Moderate to High
Historical Climate Events
Major flooding occurred in northern Tasmania, including Burnie, after heavy rainfall. The event caused significant damage to infrastructure and property.
SourceA severe storm caused widespread damage across Tasmania, including Burnie, with strong winds and heavy rainfall leading to power outages and flooding.
SourceHeavy rainfall caused minor flooding in low-lying areas of Burnie, disrupting traffic and causing some property damage.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 6.0 | 6.5(+0.5) | 7.0(+1.0) |
| bushfire | 4.0 | 4.2(+0.2) | 4.4(+0.4) |
| heat | 5.0 | 5.3(+0.3) | 5.6(+0.6) |
| coastal | 7.0 | 7.8(+0.8) | 8.5(+1.5) |
By 2030, Burnie is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with coastal flooding and heatwaves becoming more frequent and intense. Sea level rise will continue to exacerbate coastal erosion and inundation.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Coastal Protection Measures
ImmediateImplement coastal protection measures such as seawalls, beach nourishment, and dune restoration to reduce the impact of sea level rise and storm surges.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreHeatwave Preparedness Plan
Near-termDevelop and implement a heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events. This includes establishing cooling centers, providing public awareness campaigns, and ensuring access to healthcare.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreSustainable Urban Planning
Long-termPromote sustainable urban planning practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance climate resilience. This includes encouraging energy-efficient buildings, promoting public transportation, and preserving green spaces.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreFlood Management Strategies
Near-termDevelop and implement flood management strategies to reduce the risk of flooding from rivers and coastal inundation. This includes improving drainage infrastructure, implementing flood-resistant building codes, and establishing early warning systems.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreAbout Burnie's Climate Risk Profile
Burnie, located on the north-west coast of Tasmania, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include coastal flooding and erosion due to sea level rise and storm surges, as well as increasing heatwaves and changes in rainfall patterns.
The coastal areas of Burnie are particularly susceptible to sea level rise, which is projected to increase significantly in the coming decades. This will exacerbate coastal erosion and increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding events, potentially impacting infrastructure, property, and ecosystems.
Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves pose a threat to public health, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Changes in rainfall patterns could also lead to water scarcity and impact agricultural productivity.
While bushfire risk is relatively lower compared to other parts of Tasmania, it's still important to manage vegetation and reduce potential ignition sources, especially in areas bordering bushland. Implementing adaptation measures and reducing greenhouse gas emissions are crucial to protect Burnie from the worst impacts of climate change.
Addressing these challenges requires a coordinated effort from local government, businesses, and the community. Investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, promoting sustainable land use planning, and raising awareness about climate risks are essential steps to ensure a sustainable future for Burnie.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Tasmanian State Emergency Service · Tasmanian Fire Service · Department of Natural Resources and Environment Tasmania
Local Government Resources
Burnie City Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Burnie?
The main climate change risks for Burnie include coastal flooding and erosion due to sea level rise and storm surges, as well as increasing heatwaves and changes in rainfall patterns.
How will sea level rise affect Burnie?
Sea level rise will exacerbate coastal erosion and increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding events, potentially impacting infrastructure, property, and ecosystems in Burnie.
What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Burnie?
During heatwaves, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, avoid strenuous activities, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.
Is my property at risk from flooding in Burnie?
Properties in low-lying coastal areas and near rivers are at higher risk of flooding. Check flood maps and consult with the Burnie City Council to assess your property's vulnerability.
What is the Burnie City Council doing to address climate change?
The Burnie City Council is working to develop and implement climate adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on the community. Contact the council for more information on their initiatives.
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