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Climate Risk Profile: Exeter, TAS

Exeter, Tasmania· UNKNOWN· 7275
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Exeter, Tasmania, faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and coastal hazards due to its location near the Tamar River. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events, impacting infrastructure and property.

Overall Risk Score

5.2/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
6.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

5.0/10

Exeter is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This can pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.3

Data source

flood Risk

6.0/10

Exeter faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Tamar River and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.2

Data source

coastal Risk

6.0/10

Located near the Tamar River estuary, Exeter is vulnerable to coastal inundation and erosion due to sea level rise. This poses a threat to infrastructure and property in low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.4

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.0/10

The risk of bushfires in Exeter is moderate, with surrounding bushland posing a potential threat. Drier conditions and higher temperatures associated with climate change could exacerbate bushfire risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.1

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Property values in vulnerable areas may be affected.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to climate risks.
  • 3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate projections.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Tamar River
Elevation Range
5-20 meters
Flood Zone
Areas near the Tamar River are prone to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted properties near the river. Improved drainage is needed.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland areas.
Planning Overlay
Bushfire-prone area overlay may apply.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Vegetation management is crucial to reduce bushfire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
24.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
1.2 days

Heatwaves can impact vulnerable populations. Cooling centers may be needed.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Erosion is a concern along the riverfront.

Historical Climate Events

2016
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the region, impacting properties near the Tamar River.

Source
2013
bushfireMinor

Bushfires in the surrounding areas caused smoke haze and some property damage.

Source
2009
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Tasmania, with record temperatures recorded in some areas.

Source
2018
stormModerate

Severe storms caused damage to property and infrastructure in the region.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood6.06.2(+0.2)6.5(+0.5)6.4(+0.4)6.8(+0.8)
bushfire4.04.1(+0.1)4.3(+0.3)4.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
heat5.05.3(+0.3)5.5(+0.5)5.4(+0.4)5.7(+0.7)
coastal6.06.4(+0.4)6.7(+0.7)6.6(+0.6)7.0(+1.0)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Exeter is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with coastal and flood risks increasing more significantly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Coastal Protection Measures

Near-term

Implement coastal protection measures, such as seawalls and dune restoration, to mitigate erosion and inundation.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Management

Near-term

Implement vegetation management and firebreaks to reduce bushfire risk in surrounding areas.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Raise Awareness

Long-term

Educate the community about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Exeter's Climate Risk Profile

Exeter, situated in Tasmania, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb's proximity to the Tamar River makes it particularly susceptible to flooding, with rising sea levels and increased rainfall intensity exacerbating the risk. Coastal erosion is also a concern, threatening properties and infrastructure along the riverfront.

Bushfire risk is another factor, with surrounding bushland posing a potential threat during dry periods. Higher temperatures and drier conditions, driven by climate change, could increase the likelihood and severity of bushfires in the region.

Heatwaves are also expected to become more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. The combination of these factors highlights the need for proactive adaptation measures to protect the community and its assets.

Local authorities and residents need to work together to implement strategies to mitigate these risks, such as improving drainage infrastructure, managing vegetation, and developing emergency response plans. Addressing climate change impacts is crucial for ensuring the long-term sustainability and resilience of Exeter.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Tasmanian State Emergency Service · Tasmanian Fire Service · Department of Natural Resources and Environment Tasmania

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Exeter?

Exeter faces risks from flooding, coastal erosion, bushfires, and heatwaves, all of which are expected to increase with climate change.

How will sea level rise affect Exeter?

Sea level rise will increase the risk of coastal inundation and erosion, particularly in low-lying areas near the Tamar River.

What can I do to protect my property from flooding?

Consider installing flood barriers, improving drainage around your property, and ensuring you have adequate insurance coverage.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Exeter?

Stay hydrated, seek shade during the hottest part of the day, and check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The council is currently developing a climate strategy to address climate risks and promote sustainability. Check the council website for updates.

Where can I find information about emergency preparedness?

Visit the Tasmanian State Emergency Service website for information about emergency preparedness and response.

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