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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk Assessment for Rosebery, TAS

Rosebery, Tasmania· West Coast· 7470
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Rosebery faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and bushfires. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.2/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

5.0/10

Rosebery experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures projected. More frequent and intense heatwaves could impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect (minimal)

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.0/10

Rosebery faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and potential for heavy rainfall events. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall, potentially exacerbating flood risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Rosebery is located inland and does not face a direct coastal risk. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Inland location

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.0/10

Rosebery has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Drier conditions and increased temperatures associated with climate change could lengthen the bushfire season and increase fire intensity.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to increased flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
  • 3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency and water conservation measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Pieman River
Elevation Range
200-300m
Flood Zone
Areas near the Pieman River are susceptible to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted low-lying areas of Rosebery.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to significant bushland areas.
Planning Overlay
Refer to Tasmania Fire Service for bushfire-prone area overlays.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area has experienced bushfires in the past, particularly during dry summers.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
22.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
1 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent, impacting vulnerable residents.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
30 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2016
floodModerate

Significant rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Rosebery, impacting homes and businesses.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the surrounding region caused smoke haze and increased fire risk in Rosebery.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

Rosebery experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 30°C for several days.

Source
2022
floodMinor

Heavy rainfall led to minor flooding in some parts of Rosebery.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.06.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire4.04.3(+0.3)4.7(+0.7)
heat5.05.4(+0.4)5.8(+0.8)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Rosebery is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heat risks. Bushfire risk is also expected to rise slightly. Coastal risks remain minimal.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in improved drainage infrastructure and flood barriers to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Mitigation

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures such as vegetation management and fire breaks to reduce the risk of bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Develop a heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable residents during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Conduct community awareness programs to educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Rosebery's Climate Risk Profile

Rosebery, Tasmania, is a town that will likely experience increased climate-related challenges in the coming decades. The primary concerns are related to flooding and bushfire risks, both of which are projected to worsen due to climate change.

Flooding is a significant concern due to the town's proximity to waterways and the potential for increased rainfall intensity. Climate models suggest that Tasmania will experience more extreme rainfall events, leading to a higher risk of flash flooding and riverine flooding. This could impact residential areas, infrastructure, and local businesses.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, as the surrounding vegetation creates a potential fuel load. Drier conditions and higher temperatures associated with climate change could lengthen the bushfire season and increase the intensity of fires. This poses a threat to properties and human safety.

Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and intense, potentially impacting vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Infrastructure may also be affected, with increased demand for electricity during peak periods.

While Rosebery is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, could indirectly affect the town.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · Tasmania State Emergency Service · Tasmania Fire Service

Local Government Resources

West Coast Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Rosebery?

The main climate risks facing Rosebery are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Rosebery?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood and bushfire risks.

What can I do to protect my home from flooding?

You can improve drainage around your property, install flood barriers, and obtain adequate insurance coverage.

How can I prepare for a bushfire?

You can clear vegetation around your home, create fire breaks, and have a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

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