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Ferguson vs Fern Hill — Which is Safer?

Compare climate risk between Ferguson, Victoria and Fern Hill, Victoria. Our analysis uses data from BOM, CSIRO, and state hazard authorities to score each suburb across 6 climate hazards.

30/100
Low
37/100
Moderate
Hazard
Flood21/10053/100
Bushfire19/10040/100
Heat56/10074/100
Storm33/10023/100
Coastal24/10014/100
Cyclone24/10019/100

How to Interpret These Scores

Each hazard is scored from 0 (minimal risk) to 100 (severe risk). Scores are derived from BOM historical data, CSIRO climate projections, and state hazard authority mapping. A score of 50 means the property is in the moderate range — above average risk but not extreme. Scores above 67 indicate high risk requiring due diligence.

Minimal
0-16
Low
17-33
Moderate
34-50
Elevated
51-66
High
67-83
Severe
84-100

Insurance Cost Trajectory

Based on the hazard scores for these suburbs, current annual insurance premiums are estimated around A$6,232. With projected climate changes under RCP 8.5, premiums could rise to approximately A$8,725 by 2030 and A$16,203 by 2050. These projections align with Insurance Council of Australia data showing 28% average premium increases nationally between 2022-2025, with higher-risk areas seeing 80-120% increases.

Current
A$6,232
2030 (RCP 4.5)
A$8,725
2050 (RCP 8.5)
A$16,203

Property Value Climate Impact

Rising insurance premiums directly impact property values. Research from the Insurance Council of Australia and climate risk analysts shows that properties in areas with higher climate risk can experience a climate value drag. For a median-priced home, this could mean a potential impact of around A$49,855 or more over time.

Verdict

Ferguson has a lower overall climate risk score (30/100) compared to Fern Hill (37/100). We recommend getting an address-level report for properties in both suburbs before making a purchase decision.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Ferguson or Fern Hill safer from flooding?
Ferguson has a flood risk score of 21/100, while Fern Hill scores 53/100. A lower score indicates lower flood risk. Get an address-level flood risk report for a specific property.
Which suburb has lower bushfire risk?
Ferguson scores 19/100 for bushfire risk. Fern Hill scores 40/100. Fire risk depends on proximity to vegetation and local fire history.
Should I buy in Ferguson or Fern Hill?
Both suburbs have climate considerations. Ferguson has a lower overall climate risk score. We recommend getting a full ClimateNest report for any specific property you're considering, which includes 8 hazard scores, insurance projections, and actionable recommendations.

Explore Detailed Reports

Ferguson Flood RiskFern Hill Flood RiskFerguson Should I Buy?Fern Hill Should I Buy?

Check Your Flood Risk Now

Check Ferguson's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections