Climate Risk Profile: Casey, ACT

Casey, Australian Capital Territory· 2913

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Casey, ACT, faces moderate risks from bushfires and heatwaves, with some flood risk. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.0

Bushfire

6.0

Heat

5.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Casey

stable

Flood

40/100

Casey faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential stormwater runoff. The area's topography and drainage infrastructure contribute to this risk.

Key drivers:

·Heavy rainfall
·Stormwater runoff

increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Casey has a relatively high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate this risk during the bushfire season.

Key drivers:

·Proximity to bushland
·Dry conditions

increasing

Heat

50/100

Casey experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Casey is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

stable

Wind

24/100

Moderate wind risk — gusty summer winds

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — spring/summer thunderstorms

stable

Social

18/100

Moderate social stability — high public sector

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Casey

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Casey experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Casey faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential stormwater runoff. The area's topography and drainage infrastructure contribute to this risk.

Primary Drivers

·Heavy rainfall
·Stormwater runoff
·Urban development

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Casey is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Projections (N/A)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Casey has a relatively high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate this risk during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

·Proximity to bushland
·Dry conditions
·Strong winds
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurers are likely to increase premiums in areas with higher bushfire and flood risk.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience slower price growth or decreased value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Review insurance options and premiums.
4.Develop an emergency plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Ginninderra Creek
Elevation Range: 600-650m
Flood Zone: Potentially affected by local flooding

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to Mulligans Flat Nature Reserve
Planning Overlay: ACTmapi Bushfire Prone Areas
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: N/A
Erosion Risk: N/A

Historical Climate Events

2003

bushfireCatastrophic

The 2003 Canberra bushfires caused widespread damage and loss of life in the region, highlighting the area's vulnerability to bushfires.

Source

2018

heatwaveModerate

Canberra experienced a prolonged heatwave in January 2018, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several consecutive days.

Source

2022

floodMinor

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in some parts of Canberra, including areas near Casey.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	40	4.2(+0.2)	4.4(+0.4)
bushfire	60	6.4(+0.4)	6.7(+0.7)
heat	50	5.3(+0.3)	5.9(+0.9)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Casey is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with bushfire risk increasing more significantly than other hazards.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Clear vegetation around properties, develop a bushfire survival plan, and ensure adequate insurance coverage.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance Stormwater Drainage

Near-term

Invest in upgrades to stormwater drainage infrastructure to reduce the risk of localized flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Management Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events, including establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during periods of drought and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Casey's Climate Risk Profile

Casey is a suburb in the Australian Capital Territory that is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding. The suburb's location near bushland increases its vulnerability to bushfires, particularly during dry and windy conditions.

Heatwaves are also a growing concern, with average temperatures expected to rise in the coming decades. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. The urban environment can also amplify the effects of heatwaves due to the urban heat island effect.

Flooding is a less significant but still present risk, primarily from heavy rainfall events that can overwhelm stormwater drainage systems. Climate change is projected to increase the intensity of rainfall events, potentially increasing flood risk in the future.

Residents and property owners in Casey should take steps to prepare for these risks, including maintaining their properties to reduce bushfire hazards, developing emergency plans, and staying informed about weather warnings. The local government is also working to address climate risks through infrastructure improvements and community education programs.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Government Environment and Planning

Local Government Resources

ACT Government

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Casey?

The main climate change risks in Casey are bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How can I prepare my property for bushfires?

You can prepare your property for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, maintaining your gutters, and having a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, it is important to stay hydrated, stay cool, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and friends.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Casey?

You can find information about flood risks in Casey on the ACT Government Environment and Planning website.

Is Casey a good place to invest in property considering climate change?

While Casey faces climate risks, taking proactive adaptation measures can help mitigate these risks. Consider the long-term climate projections and property-specific vulnerabilities when making investment decisions.